Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Machac

Rank: #47
55%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #57
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #47 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-04-14

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #57 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #39 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #44 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #35 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1758.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1821.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.6
Clay: 41.2
Grass: 42.4
Serve Rating: 61.0
Return Rating: 63.8

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 52.2
ELO Rating: 1685.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1786.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.5
Clay: 40.4
Grass: 41.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.7

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Barcelona, round of 32 on clay at a 500-level event, Tomas Machac is narrowly favored to beat Sebastián Báez. The model gives Machac a 54.89% chance to win versus 45.11% for Báez, with a predicted match length of about 23.12 total games.

Match Analysis

Machac (rank 47) arrives with a stronger form index (61.8) and a higher Elo (1758.5) than Báez (rank 57, form 52.2, Elo 1686.0). Both players show no accumulated fatigue from this tournament. Surface strength indices are almost identical (Machac 41.24, Báez 40.41), so neither has a pronounced clay edge. There are large gaps in the service and return metrics: Báez’s mean serve index (97.16) far exceeds Machac’s (61.04), and Báez’s mean return index (93.68) is also substantially higher than Machac’s (63.82). Those differences suggest Báez can produce more free points and is strong on return, while Machac’s baseline game and form are compensating factors. Recent results underline the contrast. Machac posted two wins in Monte Carlo (against Altmaier and Cerúndolo) before a tight three-set loss to Jannik Sinner; his recent matches were long and competitive. Báez has mixed recent form: a solid win over Stan Wawrinka sandwiched between losses to Alcaraz and a straight-sets defeat in Bucharest earlier—results that show upside but some inconsistency.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Sebastian Baez wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces total 7.02. Clay’s slower pace typically suppresses serve winners, so the expected aces are limited despite Báez’s much higher serve rating; his big-serve profile should still account for a lion’s share of the predicted aces. For double faults prediction, the expected double faults sit at 4.88; clay’s longer points and potential late-match fatigue generally increase double faults, so the expected double faults number reflects that surface tendency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.0 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s slightly better recent form and higher Elo give him the narrow edge in a matchup where Báez’s superior serve-and-return numbers could flip the script. Watch Báez’s serve production and who takes control of the baseline exchanges — whoever does will likely decide this tight encounter.

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