Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Tomas Machac

Rank: #22
38%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #4
62%
Predicted Games Played: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 74.9
ELO Rating: 1232.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 86.8

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 83.3
ELO Rating: 3959.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.2
Clay: 37.4
Grass: 44.8
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac

  • Last Match: vs Ugo Blanchet (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (1-2) hard Toronto 140 min

Taylor Fritz

  • Last Match: vs Jerome Kym (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Lloyd Harris (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Cincinnati 119 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Cincinnati 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the 2025 US Open, Tomas Machac will face Taylor Fritz on hard courts in New York. The matchup features the 4th-ranked Fritz as the favorite with a 61.76% probability of victory, while Machac has a 38.24% chance of pulling off an upset. The predicted total number of games played in this contest is 39.

Match Analysis

Tomas Machac, currently ranked 22, has a form index of 74.92 and an Elo rating of 1232.85, showcasing solid performance, particularly on hard courts. His surface strength index stands at 14.20, while he maintains a mean serve index of 96.56 and a mean return index of 86.83. In contrast, Taylor Fritz, ranked 4th, boasts a higher form index of 83.31 and an impressive Elo rating of 3959.37, indicating his elite status. Fritz's surface strength index is significantly higher at 31.16, and his mean serve index slightly edges out Machac's at 96.87, while his mean return index is 85.77. The minimal difference in serve index suggests both players possess strong serving capabilities, but Fritz's higher overall indices provide him an edge. In their recent performances, both players have been dominant in their matches, with Machac winning all three of his last matches in straight sets, demonstrating a powerful form as he advances through the tournament. Fritz has also been successful, winning his last three matches, although one required him to drop a set, indicating he faced slightly more resistance than Machac. Both players are currently at a cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes, which may impact their performance, but their recent form suggests they are well-prepared for this clash.

Final Prediction

Taylor Fritz's superior ranking, form, and overall performance metrics provide him with a clear advantage in this matchup against Tomas Machac. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of each player’s serve, particularly if Fritz can leverage his slight edge in serve index to dominate crucial points in the match.