Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Dino Prizmic

Rank: #87
49%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #29
51%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

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Player Metrics

Dino Prizmic

Form Index: 92.9
ELO Rating: 1728.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 581.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.6
Clay: 43.2
Grass: 40.1
Serve Rating: 63.5
Return Rating: 65.4

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 69.0
ELO Rating: 1777.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1831.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.1
Clay: 44.9
Grass: 40.0
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Dino Prizmic

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Last Match: vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) clay Madrid 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (0-2) clay Barcelona 121 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (2-1) clay Barcelona 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 117 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dino Prizmic
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Madrid Masters 1000, Round of 32 on clay in Spain, Dino Prizmic meets Tomas Martin Etcheverry in a matchup that looks finely balanced on paper. The model slightly favors Etcheverry to win (51.06%) over Prizmic (48.94%), with a projected total of about 24.0 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Prizmic (rank 87) arrives in strong recent form with a high form index (92.86) and an Elo of 1728.2, but carries heavy tournament fatigue (581 minutes). His surface strength index is 43.21, and his mean serve and return indices are fairly even (serve 63.51, return 65.39). Etcheverry (rank 29) has the higher Elo (1777.25) and is much fresher (78 minutes of court time), with a slightly higher surface strength index (44.91). The gap in mean serve index is substantial — Etcheverry’s 98.24 versus Prizmic’s 63.51 — and his mean return index (90.52) also notably exceeds Prizmic’s (65.39), so both serving and returning metrics tilt toward Etcheverry. Looking at recent results, Prizmic has won three straight matches in Madrid, including a marathon 182-minute win over Ben Shelton and straight-set victories earlier in the event. That winning streak underpins his high form index but also explains his elevated fatigue. Etcheverry has been less consistent in form index terms (69.02) but posted a comfortable 2-0 win over Sebastian Ofner in 78 minutes here; his prior week in Barcelona included a win over Jack Draper and a loss to Nuno Borges, showing mixed clay results but relative freshness at this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Dino Prizmic - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Dino Prizmic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Positive values indicate Dino Prizmic winning more games, negative values indicate Tomas Martin Etcheverry winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 18.4 total and the double faults prediction is about 4.89 total. On slow, high-bounce clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed; however, Etcheverry’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the predicted ace count compared with a baseline clay match. Expected double faults remain moderate, with longer rallies and fatigue (especially on Prizmic’s side) potentially nudging the expected double faults upward later in the contest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.4 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Dino Prizmic versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s edge comes from superior Elo, markedly stronger serve and return indices, and far lower accumulated fatigue. The match will hinge on whether Prizmic’s hot form and resilience after long matches can offset Etcheverry’s serving and returning firepower—serve effectiveness on clay is the key factor to watch.

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