Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #30
32%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #44
68%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.6 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent record by level +3.6 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Head-to-head +3.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent form +2.8 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #30 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #31 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-09-29

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #44 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #87 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #49 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #36 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1651.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1713.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.2
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.3

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 67.6
ELO Rating: 1840.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1768.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 152.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.9
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Tsitsipas is favoured, with a 68% chance of winning against Tomas Martin Etcheverry’s 32%. The forecast points to 24.1 total games in this Round of 32 match in Tokyo.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas has the stronger recent run at this level. He has won two straight-set matches in Tokyo, against Yoshihito Nishioka and Rinky Hijikata, while Etcheverry arrives after hard-court losses to Alex Michelsen and Kyrian Jacquet. The head-to-head factor also points toward Tsitsipas, alongside a stronger overall competitive profile. Their serve levels are close, but the matchup’s serve-and-return balance is one area that favours Tsitsipas. Etcheverry has the better return profile, so he can make the Greek work through service games, but Tsitsipas has been more effective recently and is the more favoured player on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Stefanos Tsitsipas) -2.6 Most likely spread: -3 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Etcheverry is projected for 6.8 aces and 2.2 double faults, while Tsitsipas is projected for 7.8 aces and 2.4 double faults. Their serving profiles are similar, which fits the close ace totals on a hard court where both serve and return can have an impact.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.1 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6.8 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 7.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.2 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 6.8 aces

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 7.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 2.2 double faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Martin Etcheverry's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s stronger return is the clearest way to unsettle the forecast: if he consistently pressures Tsitsipas’ service games, the favourite’s advantage could narrow.

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