Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Prediction

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #31
49%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #53
51%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

Why the Model Favors Thiago Agustin Tirante

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +3.6 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Recent form +1.8 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Surface fit +1.0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Recent record by level +0.6 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Age +0.6 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Thiago Agustin Tirante. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #31 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #54 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-11-10

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #53 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #69 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #92 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-11-10

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 43.5
ELO Rating: 1657.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 152.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.2

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 1673.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1742.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 104.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.5
Clay: 28.7
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Max Dahlin (2-1) hard Stockholm 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (1-2) hard Paris 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Paris 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Paris 169 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (0-2) hard Vienna 83 min

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Thiago Agustin Tirante is a slight favourite, with the forecast at 51% to Tomas Martin Etcheverry’s 49%. It projects 24.6 games in this Round of 16 match in Stockholm.

Match Analysis

Tirante’s advantage comes chiefly from his stronger overall record against the opposition he has faced, despite sitting 53rd in the rankings to Etcheverry’s 31st. He also arrives off a straight-sets win over Jaume Munar, though his two previous matches in Paris ended in losses. Etcheverry has the stronger recent-form and hard-court profile, and his win over Alex de Minaur is a notable result in that stretch. He also beat Max Dahlin in Stockholm, but needed three sets and has spent 152 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with Tirante’s 104. Those contrasting strengths leave little separating them.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Thiago Agustin Tirante) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Etcheverry is projected for 7.4 aces and 1.8 double faults, while Tirante is projected for 10.5 aces and 2.5 double faults. Their overall serving profiles are close, but the forecast gives Tirante the higher ace count and also allows for more errors. The hard court’s consistent bounce can reward accurate serving.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.8 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7.4 + Thiago Agustin Tirante 10.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1.8 + Thiago Agustin Tirante 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 7.4 aces

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 10.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 1.8 double faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Martin Etcheverry's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s better hard-court form could overturn the narrow forecast, especially if his win over de Minaur reflects the level he can bring here. Tirante’s fresh legs and recent straight-sets win give him a counterweight.

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