Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #17
62%
VS

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Rank: #52
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +8.7 Tommy Paul
Recent record by level +6.6 Tommy Paul
Overall strength +6.2 Tommy Paul
Recent form +5.0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Age +4.1 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #17 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #25 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #20 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-09-29

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

  • Current #52 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #72 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #96 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #143 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #268 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 48.7
ELO Rating: 1870.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1876.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.6
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 91.3

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Form Index: 58.4
ELO Rating: 1677.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1726.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 61.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.5
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tommy Paul is favored, with the forecast giving him 62% to Vallejo’s 38%. The expected total is 23.5 games.

Match Analysis

Paul’s stronger hard-court fit is a major separator, alongside his higher ranking and greater overall strength. He is also the stronger returner, which could help him put pressure on Vallejo’s service games. Vallejo has the better recent-form case: he beat Valentin Royer in straight sets in Shanghai and also recorded a win over Matteo Berrettini in Tokyo. His youth and recent results give him a path into the match, despite Paul’s advantages on this surface.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Adolfo Daniel Vallejo) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Paul is projected to hit 5.5 aces and 2.2 double faults, while Vallejo is forecast for 4.2 aces and 2.7 double faults. Their serve levels are relatively close, so the hard-court projection has only a modest gap in aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.7 Most likely: 7 aces Per player: Tommy Paul 5.5 + Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 4.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tommy Paul 2.2 + Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 2.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 5.5 aces

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 4.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 2.2 double faults

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 2.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vallejo’s recent form is the clearest threat to the forecast. If he can sustain the level that brought wins over Royer and Berrettini, he can make Paul’s hard-court advantage less decisive.

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