Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #14
17%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
83%
Expected Total Games: 21.7
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +10.5 Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head +8.1 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +7.5 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +7.0 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent form +2.0 Tommy Paul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 83% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #14 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #20 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-10-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #2 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 56.2
ELO Rating: 1906.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1894.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.9
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.5

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 2236.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2611.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 224.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 59.0
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
3
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alcaraz is a strong favourite in this Vienna quarterfinal, at 83% to Paul’s 17%, with 21.7 games projected. The forecast gives Alcaraz the advantage in overall level, their head-to-head and hard-court suitability.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz is ranked third to Paul’s 14th, and his stronger hard-court profile is a significant separator. The head-to-head also favours him, though Paul’s recent level offers a counterpoint. Paul has won his two Vienna matches in straight sets, including a win over Andrey Rublev. Alcaraz has also beaten Karen Khachanov and Nikoloz Basilashvili in straight sets, so both arrive with strong results on this surface.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.7 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz) -4.9 Most likely spread: -6 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Paul is projected for 5.1 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Alcaraz is forecast for 6.1 aces and 2.4 double faults. Their serving profiles are close, which fits the narrow difference in projected aces on Vienna’s hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Tommy Paul 5.1 + Carlos Alcaraz 6.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tommy Paul 2.0 + Carlos Alcaraz 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 5.1 aces

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 6.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 2.0 double faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

26.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (54.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s recent form is his clearest chance to narrow the gap, especially if he can keep the pressure on Alcaraz through longer rallies. Alcaraz has spent 224 minutes on court this tournament to Paul’s 138, a difference that could become relevant if the match stretches.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel