Tommy Paul vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Paul arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 18) with superior Elo (1797.8 vs 1557.7) and a stronger recent form index (38.30 vs 29.63). Both players show no accumulated fatigue from this tournament, but Paul’s surface strength index (36.61) is noticeably higher than Quinn’s (17.60), suggesting Paul is more comfortable on clay. Serve profiles are nearly identical — mean serve indices are effectively the same — but Paul carries a clear edge in return ability: his mean return index (91.56) exceeds Quinn’s (84.71) by more than five points, a gap that could be decisive on the slower surface. Looking at recent results, Paul is 1-2 across his last three matches — a straight-sets win over Aleksandar Vukic and defeats to Thiago Tirante and Luciano Darderi in clay events, with match lengths ranging from 80 to 143 minutes. Quinn’s last three matches are all losses, two of which went the distance in longer contests (150 and 150 minutes) and one straight-set loss in Madrid; those extended matches reflect grind-heavy clay conditions but did not convert into wins. Both players’ recent clay experience is extensive, but Paul’s solitary win and higher underlying metrics give him the statistical edge.