Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Tommy Paul vs Holger Rune Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #14
67%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #433
33%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +6.1 Tommy Paul
Surface fit +5.2 Tommy Paul
Serve & return game +4.6 Tommy Paul
Overall record & opposition quality +4.1 Tommy Paul
Age +2.8 Holger Rune

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 67% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #14 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #18 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #22 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-11-03

Holger Rune

  • Current #433 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #99 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #40 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #17 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 46.0
ELO Rating: 1901.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1894.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.1
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.3

Holger Rune

Form Index: 37.6
ELO Rating: 1722.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1713.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.4
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Holger Rune
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tommy Paul is favoured to beat Holger Rune, with the forecast giving him 67% to Rune’s 33%. It projects 22.8 total games, pointing to a competitive match.

Match Analysis

Paul’s advantage comes from a stronger hard-court profile and better overall results against the level of opposition he has faced. He also has the edge in the serve-and-return comparison, particularly in his ability to put pressure on Rune’s service games. Paul is ranked 14th, while Rune is 433rd. Both arrive with two wins in their last three matches. Paul’s wins included a straight-sets victory over Andrey Rublev, while Rune beat Hubert Hurkacz before losing to Valentin Vacherot. Rune’s age is a counterweight in the forecast, but Paul’s stronger recent record and surface fit carry more weight.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Holger Rune) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Tommy Paul wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Paul is projected for 6.2 aces and 2.0 double faults, while Rune is forecast for 5.8 aces and 2.5 double faults. Their serving levels are close, which fits the small projected gap in aces, though Rune is expected to double-fault slightly more on this medium-paced hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.8 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Tommy Paul 6.2 + Holger Rune 5.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tommy Paul 1.9 + Holger Rune 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 6.2 aces

Holger Rune

Expected 5.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tommy Paul

Expected 1.9 double faults

Holger Rune

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (43.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rune’s serve could narrow the gap if he uses it to win enough points without needing to rely on rallies. If Paul’s stronger return limits that, the forecast’s main advantage should hold.

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