Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tommy Paul vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #22
75%
VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #47
25%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #22 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-02-10

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #47 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #53 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #166 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #1098 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 66.7
ELO Rating: 1982.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1812.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.0
Clay: 17.1
Grass: 14.5
Serve Rating: 57.3
Return Rating: 53.8

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 20.6
ELO Rating: 1005.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1480.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 92.6

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jenson Brooksby
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs James Watt (2-0) hard Auckland 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Paris 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1-2) hard Basel 167 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tommy Paul
vs
1
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 at the Dallas hard-court ATP 500 event in Texas pairs Tommy Paul against Jenson Brooksby. The model favors Tommy Paul to win (74.89% probability) over Brooksby (25.11%), with a predicted total of about 24.24 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul arrives ranked 22 with a strong form index (66.66) and an Elo of 1982.48. He shows no tournament fatigue and posts a surface strength index of 14.96; his mean serve index is 57.32 and mean return index 53.79. Jenson Brooksby is ranked 47 with a much lower form index (20.59) and a markedly lower Elo (1005.86). He also reports zero fatigue and a surface strength index of 9.89. The gap in mean serve index (≈40 points) and mean return index (≈39 points) is large and notable. Recent results underline the contrast: Paul reached the second week at the Australian Open before losing to a top opponent, and earlier wins there show consecutive positive results in preceding rounds. Brooksby’s last three matches include a couple of early losses on hard courts and one win in Auckland, reflecting uneven form. Both players’ recent matches were on hard courts and featured long and varied durations, but Paul’s overall recent consistency and higher Elo underpin his advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Jenson Brooksby) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Jenson Brooksby wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is relatively high, with predicted aces ≈ 23.35 for the match and an expected double faults total of about 6.58. Hard courts typically produce a moderate ace count compared with grass or clay, so the predicted aces reflect that balance. With Brooksby’s much higher serve index, he could contribute disproportionately to the ace total, which affects the predicted aces and the double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.4 Most likely: 24 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s higher ranking, superior Elo and steadier form provide the clearest edge in the model’s projection. The key factor to watch is how Brooksby’s serving impact (ace production and free points) matches up against Paul’s ability to neutralize big serves with returns.

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