S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 16

Daniel Evans vs Ugo Humbert Prediction

Daniel Evans

Rank: #217
27%
VS

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #20
73%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

Ranking Trends

Daniel Evans

  • Current Rank: #217 (2025-06-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #178 (2025-03-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #164 (2024-12-09)
  • 9 Months Ago: #178 (2024-09-09)
  • 12 Months Ago: #62 (2024-06-10)

Ugo Humbert

  • Current Rank: #20 (2025-06-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #19 (2025-03-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #14 (2024-12-09)
  • 9 Months Ago: #18 (2024-09-09)
  • 12 Months Ago: #16 (2024-06-10)

Player Metrics

Daniel Evans

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 378.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 414.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.4

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 38.5
ELO Rating: 2010.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.5
Clay: 15.1
Grass: 21.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Daniel Evans
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mees Rottgering (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 160 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Clement Tabur (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Ugo Humbert
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (1-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) clay Rome 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (1-2) clay Madrid 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) clay Munich 83 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Evans
vs
0
Ugo Humbert
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the s_hertogenbosch tournament in the Netherlands, Daniel Evans faces Ugo Humbert on grass. With a significant disparity in their rankings and recent performances, Humbert is favored to win with a probability of 73.18%, while Evans holds a 26.82% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Ugo Humbert currently ranks 20th, boasting an Elo rating of 2010.92, which places him significantly ahead of Daniel Evans, who is ranked 217 with an Elo rating of 378.73. While Humbert has a surface strength index of 21.92 on grass, Evans lags behind with a score of 3.81. This difference is crucial as it indicates Humbert's superior adaptability and skill on grass courts. Additionally, despite Humbert’s slightly lower mean serve index of 95.64 compared to Evans' 96.78, his overall game is bolstered by his higher rank and experience. The mean return index, with Humbert at 84.91 and Evans at 86.36, showcases Evans’ better returning ability, though it is not enough to outweigh Humbert's overall advantages. Looking at their recent performances, Evans has shown resilience by winning his last three matches at this tournament, including a notable victory against Rinky Hijikata, with match durations ranging from 119 to 160 minutes. In contrast, Humbert's last three matches were played on clay, where he faced mixed results, including a recent loss. His fatigue level is notably at 0.0, indicating he comes into this match fresh compared to Evans' cumulative fatigue of 414.0 minutes.

Final Prediction

Ugo Humbert's superior ranking, fresh condition, and overall experience on the ATP circuit give him a clear edge heading into this match against Daniel Evans. A key factor to observe will be how Humbert adapts to the grass surface, particularly after transitioning from clay, and whether Evans can leverage his returning abilities to disrupt Humbert's service games.