Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Ugo Humbert vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #26
46%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #59
54%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #26 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #16 2024-10-14

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #59 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #42 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 28.0
ELO Rating: 1454.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1653.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.9
Clay: 15.1
Grass: 17.6
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 84.8

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1462.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.8
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 84.4

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Matteo Berrettini
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Stockholm tournament, Ugo Humbert will face Matteo Berrettini on hard courts. The match promises to be competitive, with Berrettini predicted to win with a probability of 53.95%, while Humbert's chances stand at 46.05%. The anticipated total number of games played is set at 24.0.

Match Analysis

Ugo Humbert, currently ranked 26, has a form index of 27.99 and an Elo rating of 1454.62. His fatigue level is at 0.0 minutes, indicating he is fresh for this match. Humbert’s surface strength index is 14.87, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.03, which is marginally higher than Berrettini's 96.80. The mean return index for Humbert is also slightly superior at 84.78 compared to Berrettini's 84.36, but the difference is not significantly above 5 points. Matteo Berrettini, ranked 59, has a form index of 37.11 and a higher Elo rating of 1462.24. However, he enters the match with 80.0 minutes of cumulative fatigue from previous rounds. In his last three matches, Berrettini has shown a mixed bag of results, winning his last match against Giulio Zeppieri while losing the two prior in Shanghai and Tokyo. Meanwhile, Humbert’s recent performances have been less than stellar, achieving one win against Jordan Thompson and suffering losses to both Holger Rune and Jenson Brooksby.

Final Prediction

Matteo Berrettini has a slight edge due to his overall higher Elo rating and recent victory, despite his fatigue levels. The key factor to observe will be how Berrettini manages his fatigue and whether he can leverage his experience on the hard surface to counter Humbert’s serve and return capabilities.

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