Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils Prediction

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #18
29%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #9
71%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Why the Model Favors Arthur Fils

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.4 Arthur Fils
Overall strength +4.6 Arthur Fils
Serve & return game +4.6 Arthur Fils
Surface fit +2.8 Arthur Fils
Overall record & opposition quality +2.5 Arthur Fils

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Arthur Fils. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #18 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #23 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #204 2025-09-29

Arthur Fils

  • Current #9 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #24 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #28 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 42.9
ELO Rating: 1759.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1752.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.8
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 58.1
ELO Rating: 2008.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1992.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 367.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.4
Clay: 40.9
Grass: 13.5
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Vacherot
vs
1
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arthur Fils is the clear favorite, taking 71% of the forecast against Valentin Vacherot’s 29%. The Tokyo Quarterfinals are projected to last 23.5 games, leaving room for a competitive contest despite the gap.

Match Analysis

Fils arrives with three straight wins, including a straight-sets victory over Frances Tiafoe. Vacherot has also put together strong wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Blockx, but Fils’s recent results and higher ranking point to the stronger overall level. Fils has the better hard-court profile and a slight advantage in return, while their serving profiles are close. Vacherot has spent 114 fewer minutes on court this tournament, a useful advantage if he can extend rallies and keep Fils under pressure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Valentin Vacherot - Arthur Fils) -3.1 Most likely spread: -4 (Arthur Fils wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Vacherot is projected for 8.2 aces and 3.0 double faults, with Fils at 7.1 aces and 2.2 double faults. Vacherot’s slight serve advantage aligns with his higher ace estimate, while the hard court’s consistent bounce should keep conditions comparable for both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Valentin Vacherot 8.2 + Arthur Fils 7.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Valentin Vacherot 3.0 + Arthur Fils 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 8.2 aces

Arthur Fils

Expected 7.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 3.0 double faults

Arthur Fils

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Valentin Vacherot's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (44.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s serve, combined with his lower time on court, gives him a practical way to challenge the forecast. If Fils’s stronger return neutralizes that advantage, his edge in overall level should prove decisive.

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