Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone Prediction

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #31
50%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #43
50%
Expected Total Games: 25.9
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

Why the Model Favors Valentin Vacherot

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Mariano Navone
Serve & return game +2.2 Valentin Vacherot
Recent record by level +2.1 Valentin Vacherot
Overall strength +1.6 Valentin Vacherot
Age +1.0 Mariano Navone

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Valentin Vacherot. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #31 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-10-27

Mariano Navone

  • Current #43 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #44 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #45 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #74 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #86 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 36.0
ELO Rating: 1742.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.9
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.5

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 40.2
ELO Rating: 1680.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1719.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 26.6
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.2

Recent Matches

Valentin Vacherot
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Van Assche (1-2) hard Marseille 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Shanghai 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Shanghai 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Tokio 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-1) hard Tokio 140 min

Mariano Navone
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Valentin Vacherot
vs
1
Mariano Navone
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valentin Vacherot is a marginal pick, with his win probability rounding to 50% and Mariano Navone’s also rounding to 50%. The Round of 32 in Basel is projected to produce 25.9 total games on the hard court.

Match Analysis

Vacherot’s higher ranking, 31 to Navone’s 43, and stronger hard-court profile give him a narrow advantage. His serve is the more reliable separator, while Navone’s better return gives him a route to make Vacherot work through service games and keep the contest close. Navone’s record against stronger opposition is a meaningful counterweight, and his return game is the stronger of the two. Vacherot gets support from his greater overall strength and recent record by level, though their latest results offer little separation: each won one of his last three matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.9 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Valentin Vacherot - Mariano Navone) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Vacherot is projected for 7.8 aces and 3.2 double faults, compared with 3.9 aces and 2.7 double faults for Navone. Vacherot’s stronger serve helps explain the ace gap, while the hard court’s consistent bounce should give Navone chances to get returns into play.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.6 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Valentin Vacherot 7.8 + Mariano Navone 3.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Valentin Vacherot 3.2 + Mariano Navone 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 7.8 aces

Mariano Navone

Expected 3.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 3.2 double faults

Mariano Navone

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Valentin Vacherot's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (29.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Navone’s return is the matchup lever: if he can consistently blunt Vacherot’s serve, the narrow forecast could swing his way.

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