Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Valentin Vacherot vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #31
31%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #13
69%
Expected Total Games: 27.2
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Why the Model Favors Taylor Fritz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.4 Taylor Fritz
Serve & return game +5.5 Taylor Fritz
Overall strength +4.3 Taylor Fritz
Recent form +2.2 Valentin Vacherot
Overall record & opposition quality +1.7 Taylor Fritz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Taylor Fritz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #31 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-10-27

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #13 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #7 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #9 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #4 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 53.7
ELO Rating: 1810.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1785.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 391.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.9
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.5

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 57.6
ELO Rating: 1884.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1910.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 226.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.6
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (2-1) hard Basel 122 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (2-1) hard Basel 150 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Basel 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Van Assche (1-2) hard Marseille 126 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Shanghai 84 min

Taylor Fritz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Vacherot
vs
1
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fritz is favored in the Basel semifinals, with the forecast giving him a 69% chance to Vacherot’s 31%. The expected total is 27.2 games.

Match Analysis

Fritz’s higher ranking, No. 13 to Vacherot’s No. 31, and stronger record at higher levels are the clearest reasons he is favored. His serve is marginally stronger, although Vacherot has the better return profile, making the serve-return contest more balanced than the overall forecast. Vacherot’s recent form is a counterweight: he has won all three of his Basel matches, including a quarterfinal victory over Holger Rune. He has spent 391 minutes on court to Fritz’s 226, however, so his run has come with a substantially heavier workload.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.2 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Valentin Vacherot - Taylor Fritz) -3.0 Most likely spread: -4 (Taylor Fritz wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fritz is projected for 12.1 aces and 2.0 double faults, while Vacherot is projected for 10.0 aces and 2.8 double faults. Both have strong serve profiles, and Fritz’s slight advantage on serve fits his higher ace estimate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.5 Most likely: 19 aces Per player: Valentin Vacherot 10.0 + Taylor Fritz 12.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Valentin Vacherot 2.8 + Taylor Fritz 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 10.0 aces

Taylor Fritz

Expected 12.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 2.8 double faults

Taylor Fritz

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

55.8% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Valentin Vacherot's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (46.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s stronger return is his clearest way to disrupt the forecast: winning enough points on Fritz’s serve could make the difference in overall level less decisive. His heavier workload is the main concern if he needs to keep applying that pressure.

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