Vilius Gaubas vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Auger‑Aliassime arrives with a clear edge on paper: world No. 5 versus Gaubas at No. 124, and an Elo gap (1842.12 vs 1663.71) that reflects more consistent high‑level results. Gaubas’ form index (≈61) is actually higher than Félix’s (≈49), indicating recent momentum, but Gaubas carries heavy tournament fatigue — 374 minutes on court in Madrid — compared with Auger‑Aliassime, who has 0 minutes logged here. Surface strength indices are close (Gaubas 42.06, Auger‑Aliassime 45.23), so neither player has a large clay‑specific advantage by that measure. Serve and return profiles point to Auger‑Aliassime’s dominance in serve numbers: his mean serve index (≈98.6) outstrips Gaubas (≈64.0) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (≈87.7) is also substantially higher than Gaubas’s (≈73.5). Those gaps suggest Auger‑Aliassime can both dictate on serve and be aggressive on return. Recent form diverges: Gaubas is unbeaten through three matches in Madrid (wins over Baez, Sakamoto and Gea, including a 202‑minute encounter), which explains the fatigue but also confidence; Auger‑Aliassime showed solid clay results in Monte‑Carlo (wins over Cilic and Ruud) before losing to Sinner.