Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #245
37%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #66
63%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

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Player Metrics

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 35.7
ELO Rating: 1483.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.1
Clay: 37.9
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 82.3
Return Rating: 47.2

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 49.1
ELO Rating: 1602.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1659.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 41.6
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 93.0

Recent Matches

Zhizhen Zhang

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Munich 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Munich 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Munich 130 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 124 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) clay Marrakech 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zhizhen Zhang
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, Spain — round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event produces a favorable matchup for Vit Kopriva. The model gives Kopriva the edge: 63.07% chance to win versus Zhizhen Zhang at 36.93%, with a projected total of about 23.11 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kopriva arrives as the higher-ranked and higher-rated player (No. 66, Elo 1602.30) compared with Zhang (No. 245, Elo 1483.23). Kopriva’s form index (49.07) also outpaces Zhang’s (35.70); neither player carries tournament fatigue into this contest (both fatigue = 0.0). Surface indices are relatively close — Kopriva 41.58 vs Zhang 37.88 — so neither has a pronounced clay-court superiority on paper. The serving and returning profiles show clearer separation: Kopriva’s mean serve index (96.87) exceeds Zhang’s (82.28) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (93.05) is substantially higher than Zhang’s (47.21), suggesting Kopriva not only holds serve strongly but also applies consistent pressure on opponents’ service games. Over the last three matches Zhang is 1–2: a straight-sets win over Jack Pinnington Jones (63 minutes) but back-to-back losses on clay to Ben Shelton (113 minutes) and Luciano Darderi (127 minutes). Kopriva is 2–1 in his most recent trio: wins over Justin Engel and Luciano Darderi in longer, competitive matches (130 and 120 minutes) before a straight-sets loss to Flavio Cobolli (86 minutes). Both players have recent clay matches that provide relevant form context, but Kopriva’s results include more extended, high-intensity wins.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zhizhen Zhang - Vit Kopriva) +4.1 Most likely spread: +4 (Zhizhen Zhang wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. Positive values indicate Zhizhen Zhang winning more games, negative values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 12.32 for the match while the expected double faults total is near 5.67. Clay typically suppresses serve speed and reduces ace counts, so the predicted aces are modest; expected double faults reflect the surface’s longer rallies and potential late-match pressure. Kopriva’s significantly higher serve rating means he should account for a larger share of the predicted aces, even if clay limits raw ace totals.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Zhizhen Zhang versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s higher rank, loftier Elo, stronger form and clear edge in both serve and return metrics give him the advantage on paper. The match will likely turn on Kopriva’s ability to convert return pressure into breaks and whether Zhang can hold serve consistently under that pressure.

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