Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Yannick Hanfmann vs Luca Van Assche: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #57
64%
VS

Luca Van Assche

Rank: #49
36%
Expected Total Games: 24.7
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

Why the Model Favors Yannick Hanfmann

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.8 Yannick Hanfmann
Age +4.9 Luca Van Assche
Surface fit +3.0 Yannick Hanfmann
Serve & return game +2.1 Yannick Hanfmann
Overall strength +2.0 Yannick Hanfmann

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Yannick Hanfmann. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1696.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1743.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.5
Clay: 22.9
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.6

Luca Van Assche

Form Index: 59.5
ELO Rating: 1630.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 265.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 21.3
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann

Luca Van Assche

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Luca Van Assche
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cincinnati, Ohio. Round of 128 on hard court at a masters 1000 event. The model favors Yannick Hanfmann to win, with a 63.64% chance versus 36.36% for Luca Van Assche. The match is expected to be relatively short by set count, with a predicted total of about 24.69 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Hanfmann comes mainly from his recent record at this level, which contributes roughly 10.8 percentage points to his probability. That advantage is bolstered by surface fit, serve and return metrics, and overall strength, while age leans slightly toward Van Assche by about 4.9 points. Hanfmann carries a higher Elo at 1696.78 compared with Van Assche at 1630.34. Hanfmann is ranked 57 and Van Assche 49. Form indices favor Van Assche, 59.52 to Hanfmann’s 45.37. Surface strength on hard courts tilts to Hanfmann, 26.49 versus 15.68. Fatigue is a notable contrast. Hanfmann lists 0 minutes on court so far in this event. Van Assche arrives with 265 minutes, including a 153 minute win in his most recent match. Serving and returning are close overall. Hanfmann’s mean serve index is 97.38 and Van Assche’s is 94.32. Mean return indices are 88.64 and 89.00 respectively. Neither gap exceeds five points, so there is no dramatic service mismatch projected. Over their last three matches Hanfmann has two wins and a recent loss in Toronto, with long wins of 120 and 129 minutes followed by a 73 minute defeat. Van Assche has two wins in Cincinnati and a loss in Toronto. His recent wins include a 153 minute match that contributes to his cumulative fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.7 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Luca Van Assche) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Yannick Hanfmann wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. Positive values indicate Yannick Hanfmann winning more games, negative values indicate Luca Van Assche winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is 10.38 for the match and the predicted aces total reflects two big-ish servers on a medium paced hard court. The double faults prediction is 6.64 and the expected double faults figure accounts for some pressure moments in short matches. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces split should be relatively balanced.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.4 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Yannick Hanfmann versus Luca Van Assche. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yannick Hanfmann's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Yannick Hanfmann's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s edge traces back to the model’s top factor, recent record by level, supported by a better hard court profile and higher Elo. Watch Van Assche’s fatigue and Hanfmann’s serve consistency as the decisive elements in how this one plays out.

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