Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Casper Ruud vs Yibing Wu: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
65%
VS

Yibing Wu

Rank: #142
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #12 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-02-24

Yibing Wu

  • Current #142 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #181 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #211 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #401 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #411 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 53.3
ELO Rating: 2529.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1907.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 71.8
Return Rating: 21.9

Yibing Wu

Form Index: 69.9
ELO Rating: 530.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 144.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.1
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 2.8
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (1-2) hard Delray Beach 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Delray Beach 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Yibing Wu
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Yibing Wu
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard court at an ATP 500-level event. Casper Ruud is the projected winner with a 64.69% probability versus Yibing Wu at 35.31%, and the model predicts about 23.39 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with a much stronger Elo (2529.18) compared with Yibing Wu (rank 142, Elo 530.63). Ruud’s form index is 53.28 and he shows zero cumulative tournament fatigue, while Wu posts a higher form index (69.88) but carries 144 minutes on court so far. Surface strength indices are modest for both (Ruud 14.10, Wu 7.08). There is a large gap in serving and returning profiles: Wu’s mean serve index (95.63) exceeds Ruud’s (71.84) by more than 5 points, and Wu’s mean return index (88.19) is far above Ruud’s (21.89), both substantial differences that will shape rally dynamics. Recent results show Ruud has split his last three matches on hard courts — a win over Marcos Giron sandwiched between defeats to Ben Shelton and Sebastian Korda, with some long matches (up to 174 minutes). Wu has momentum in Acapulco, winning two short hard-court matches (against Rinky Hijikata and Juan Pablo Ficovich) after a prior loss at Delray Beach. Those shorter matches (57–87 minutes) helped him advance but also contributed to his current cumulative fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Yibing Wu) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Yibing Wu wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 12.1 total; the predicted aces skew toward Wu given his much higher serve index. The double faults prediction is 4.45 expected double faults overall. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate and the surface should allow both big serving and consistent return play; Wu’s superior serve rating is likely to push the ace count up and influence the match’s short points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.1 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s clear edge in ranking, Elo and freshness underpin the model’s pick despite Wu’s strong serving and returning metrics. Watch Wu’s serve and return numbers — how many free points he generates will be the key factor determining whether he can upset Ruud.

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