Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 64

Yoshihito Nishioka vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Yoshihito Nishioka

Rank: #130
55%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #93
45%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Yoshihito Nishioka

Ranking Trends

Yoshihito Nishioka

  • Current Rank: #130 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #75 (2025-05-19)
  • 6 Months Ago: #62 (2025-02-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #70 (2024-11-18)
  • 12 Months Ago: #51 (2024-08-19)

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current Rank: #93 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #100 (2025-05-19)
  • 6 Months Ago: #111 (2025-02-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #199 (2024-11-18)
  • 12 Months Ago: #299 (2024-08-19)

Player Metrics

Yoshihito Nishioka

Form Index: 15.0
ELO Rating: 852.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.1

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 484.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1501.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Yoshihito Nishioka
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Cincinnati 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) hard Toronto 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Washington 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-1) hard Washington 158 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Pablo Carreno Busta
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Leandro Riedi (0-2) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) hard Toronto 141 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yoshihito Nishioka
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Winston-Salem tournament in North Carolina, Yoshihito Nishioka is set to face Pablo Carreno Busta on hard courts. The prediction favors Nishioka, who has a 55.13% probability of winning compared to Carreno Busta's 44.87%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games to be played.

Match Analysis

Yoshihito Nishioka currently holds a ranking of 130, with a form index of 14.98 and an Elo rating of 852.92. Notably, his surface strength index is at 8.22, indicating a reasonable adaptability to hard courts. His mean serve index of 96.84 and a mean return index of 86.13 suggest he is capable of both strong serving and returning, although these indices do not indicate a significant gap over Carreno Busta in either category. In contrast, Pablo Carreno Busta, ranked 93, boasts a higher form index of 32.63 and an Elo rating of 484.43, with a surface strength index of 5.19. His mean serve index is slightly lower at 94.50, while his return index is at 85.76, reflecting a close matchup in serving capabilities. Both players come into this match with recent struggles, having lost their last three matches. Nishioka faced defeats against Terence Atmane, Ethan Quinn, and Flavio Cobolli, consistently losing in straight sets. Similarly, Carreno Busta lost to Leandro Riedi and Arthur Fils, winning only against Liam Draxl in their last three outings. This trend of recent performances may indicate mental fatigue for both players, which could influence their gameplay.

Final Prediction

Yoshihito Nishioka holds a slight edge due to his higher mean serve and return indices, which could be crucial in a competitive match. A key factor to watch will be how each player manages their serve, as both have shown vulnerabilities in recent matches. This could ultimately determine the outcome as they strive for consistency on the hard court.