Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Yunchaokete Bu

Rank: #93
33%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #24
67%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Why the Model Favors Casper Ruud

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.6 Casper Ruud
Overall strength +5.8 Casper Ruud
Recent form +2.6 Yunchaokete Bu
Overall record & opposition quality +2.5 Casper Ruud
Surface fit +1.6 Casper Ruud

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 67% for Casper Ruud. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Yunchaokete Bu

  • Current #93 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #107 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #159 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #120 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #121 2025-09-29

Casper Ruud

  • Current #24 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Yunchaokete Bu

Form Index: 57.2
ELO Rating: 1667.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 103.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.5
Clay: 8.1
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.9

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 24.8
ELO Rating: 1759.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1826.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.5
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Yunchaokete Bu
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Casper Ruud
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yunchaokete Bu
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Casper Ruud is favored, with a 67% chance of winning against Yunchaokete Bu’s 33%. The forecast points to a competitive match, with 24.1 games expected.

Match Analysis

Ruud’s higher ranking, 24th to Bu’s 93rd, reflects the broader level advantage behind the forecast. His results against stronger opposition and slightly better hard-court fit support him, though their serve and return profiles are closely matched. Bu has the better recent form: he beat Luca Van Assche in Shanghai and took a set from Novak Djokovic in Beijing. Ruud has lost his three most recent listed matches, while Bu has spent 103 minutes on court in Shanghai compared with Ruud’s none, a physical consideration in Ruud’s favor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yunchaokete Bu - Casper Ruud) -2.0 Most likely spread: -3 (Casper Ruud wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bu is projected to hit 6.9 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Ruud is forecast for 7.7 aces and 2.5 double faults. Their serve profiles are similar, with Ruud holding a slight projected edge in both totals.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.2 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Yunchaokete Bu 6.9 + Casper Ruud 7.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Yunchaokete Bu 2.1 + Casper Ruud 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Yunchaokete Bu

Expected 6.9 aces

Casper Ruud

Expected 7.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Yunchaokete Bu

Expected 2.1 double faults

Casper Ruud

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yunchaokete Bu's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (42.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bu’s recent form gives him a route to upset the forecast if he carries his level from the win over Van Assche into this tougher test. Ruud’s stronger overall standing remains the more consistent basis for the prediction.

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