Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #27
68%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #85
32%
Expected Total Games: 35.5
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #27 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #19 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-05-26

Zachary Svajda

  • Current #85 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #98 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #142 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #145 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #228 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 1821.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1851.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.4
Clay: 31.1
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 96.1

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 60.1
ELO Rating: 1683.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.0
Clay: 17.7
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Hamburg 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Rome 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-0) clay Rome 69 min

Zachary Svajda
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Max Hans Rehberg (0-2) clay Geneva 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Rome 64 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Trungelliti (1-1) clay Rome 132 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 32 on clay in a grand slam setting sees Francisco Cerundolo face Zachary Svajda in a matchup that pits clay familiarity against youthful momentum. The model favors Cerundolo to win (68.39% vs 31.61%) with a predicted total of about 35.5 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets win with competitive sets or a four-set encounter.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 27) with a superior Elo (1821.5) and a surface strength index of 31.1, compared with Svajda’s rank of 85, Elo 1683.2 and a lower clay index of 17.7. Form indexes are close (Cerundolo 56.8, Svajda 60.1), and both show identical cumulative fatigue on court this fortnight (348 minutes). Cerundolo’s mean serve and Svajda’s are similar (95.9 vs 94.2), so serve power alone is not decisive; however Cerundolo’s mean return (96.1) comfortably outpaces Svajda’s (86.7) by over nine points, a gap likely to shape many service games on slow clay. On recent form, Cerundolo has navigated Roland Garros well with back-to-back 3-1 wins (against Gaston and van de Zandschulp) after a loss in Hamburg to de Minaur. Svajda likewise reached this stage with two 3-1 victories in Paris (over Walton and Popyrin) but came off a straight-sets loss in Geneva. Both players display resilience on clay in recent rounds, but Cerundolo’s returning edge and higher clay aptitude give him the statistical upper hand.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.5 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Zachary Svajda) +2.3 Most likely spread: +2 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 12.41 for the match, while the expected double faults are 6.68. Clay’s slower pace tends to reduce ace frequency and increase longer rallies, which the predicted aces number reflects; the expected double faults align with fatigue-prone longer points. Neither player has a dramatically higher serve rating, so the predicted aces are more muted and Cerundolo’s superior return may further suppress opponent aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.4 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (37.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and markedly better return index on clay underpin the projected edge. Watch Cerundolo’s break-point conversion and return pressure—those margins should determine whether Svajda can upset the forecast.

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