S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #214
24%
VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #73
76%
Expected Total Games: 26.4
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

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Ranking Trends

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current #214 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #262 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #415 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #191 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #88 2025-06-09

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #73 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #53 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #85 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #151 2025-06-09

Player Metrics

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 19.9
ELO Rating: 1397.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1396.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 4.8
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.3

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 20.2
ELO Rating: 1486.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1496.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 14.9
Grass: 18.1
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Zhizhen Zhang
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Facundo Diaz Acosta (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) clay Hamburg 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (1-2) clay Rome 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (0-2) clay Madrid 56 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) clay Munich 127 min

Jenson Brooksby
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Geneva 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Rome 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (0-2) clay Madrid 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mackenzie McDonald (0-2) clay Houston 79 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zhizhen Zhang
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At s'Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands, Round of 32 action on fast grass sets up a contrast between Zhizhen Zhang and Jenson Brooksby. The model favors Brooksby, projecting him to win with a 75.55% probability against Zhang’s 24.45%, and expects a relatively short encounter of about 26.36 games.

Match Analysis

Brooksby arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 73) with a superior Elo (1486.45) compared with Zhang (rank 214, Elo 1397.78). Both players show similar recent form indices (Zhang 19.90, Brooksby 20.19) and enter the match with no accumulated fatigue from this event. Surface strength is a notable contrast: Brooksby’s grass index (18.12) is appreciably higher than Zhang’s (5.29), suggesting Brooksby should be more comfortable exploiting the low, skidding bounce typical of grass. Serving and returning metrics are close: Zhang’s mean serve index is 96.33 versus Brooksby’s 94.83, and their mean return indices sit nearly level in the high 88s. Recent results offer little momentum for either man — Zhang has lost three straight matches (including lengthy clay-court battles) and managed only one set in two of those outings, while Brooksby also arrives off three straight defeats on clay without taking a set. Those clay struggles don’t map directly to grass, but they underscore why match play sharpness could be decisive.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.4 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zhizhen Zhang - Jenson Brooksby) -3.6 Most likely spread: -4 (Jenson Brooksby wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is elevated for this grass match: the model’s predicted aces total is 12.23. Expected double faults are modest at 4.72. Given grass favors big, flat serves and quicker points, the predicted aces reflect the surface’s tendency to reward service aggression. With serve indices closely matched, neither player is expected to dominate the ace count overwhelmingly, so the predicted aces and expected double faults should be a function of short points and hold-or-break dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Zhizhen Zhang's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (49.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Brooksby’s edge comes down to ranking, higher Elo and a clearer surface-strength advantage on grass. The match will likely hinge on who adapts quickest to grass: watch the first-serve effectiveness and how each player converts short opportunities — that should decide whether Brooksby’s projected edge holds.

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