Wuhan Wuhan, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 64

Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal Prediction

Maja Chwalinska

Rank: #22
62%
VS

Sonay Kartal

Rank: #170
38%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Maja Chwalinska

Why the Model Favors Maja Chwalinska

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +6.6 Maja Chwalinska
Overall record & opposition quality +3.8 Maja Chwalinska
Serve & return game +3.1 Sonay Kartal
Overall strength +2.2 Maja Chwalinska
Head-to-head +0.6 Sonay Kartal

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Maja Chwalinska. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Maja Chwalinska

  • Current #22 2026-10-12
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-07-13
  • 6 mo ago #129 2026-04-13
  • 9 mo ago #145 2026-01-12
  • 12 mo ago #126 2025-10-13

Sonay Kartal

  • Current #170 2026-10-12
  • 3 mo ago #83 2026-07-13
  • 6 mo ago #55 2026-04-13
  • 9 mo ago #63 2026-01-12
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-10-13

Player Metrics

Maja Chwalinska

Form Index: 38.1
ELO Rating: 1711.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1780.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 43.4
Grass: 6.7
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 91.8

Sonay Kartal

Form Index: 50.1
ELO Rating: 1748.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1820.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.5
Clay: 17.6
Grass: 25.7
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Maja Chwalinska
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Sonay Kartal
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Anhelina Kalinina (2-0) hard Wuhan 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alina Charaeva (0-2) hard Beijing 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Xinyu Wang (2-0) hard Beijing 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia (2-0) hard Beijing 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Elena Rybakina (0-1) hard Indian Wells 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Maja Chwalinska
vs
0
Sonay Kartal
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chwalinska is favoured, with the forecast giving her a 62% chance of winning against Kartal’s 38%. It projects 22.7 games in this Round of 64 match.

Match Analysis

Chwalinska’s strongest case is her fit for this matchup on hard courts, alongside the stronger record against quality opposition reflected in the forecast. Her ranking of 22, compared with Kartal’s 170, also points to a substantial gap in their established standing. Kartal has counterarguments: the serve-and-return comparison leans her way, and she arrives after beating Anhelina Kalinina in straight sets in Wuhan. Chwalinska also won her Wuhan opener, against Mayar Sherif, so both have a recent hard-court win at the event. Kartal’s stronger recent form makes her a live challenger despite the ranking gap.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Maja Chwalinska - Sonay Kartal) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Sonay Kartal wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Chwalinska is projected to hit 1.5 aces and Kartal 1.0, with the close figures reflecting similar serving profiles on a medium-paced hard court. The expected double-fault counts are also close, at 2.3 for Chwalinska and 2.2 for Kartal.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 2.4 Most likely: 1 aces Per player: Maja Chwalinska 1.5 + Sonay Kartal 1.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Maja Chwalinska 2.3 + Sonay Kartal 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Maja Chwalinska

Expected 1.5 aces

Sonay Kartal

Expected 1.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Maja Chwalinska

Expected 2.3 double faults

Sonay Kartal

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

18.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Maja Chwalinska's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kartal’s stronger hard-court profile is the specific threat to the forecast. If it carries through against Chwalinska, she could overcome the advantage the prediction gives her opponent.

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