Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Augsburg Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Dortmund

Home Team
88%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 66%
No Goal: 34%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Dortmund W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)

Augsburg L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.51
# Clean Sheets: 1

Augsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.65
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are strong favourites here, with an 88.0% probability of a home win against Augsburg and a clear edge befitting the Bundesliga’s 2nd-placed side hosting a team sitting 9th. The model leans towards goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% and at least one goal in the game rated at 66.0%. With Dortmund chasing Bayern at the top and Augsburg nestled firmly mid-table, the pressure and context are very different for the two clubs.

Match Analysis

Dortmund arrive in solid form: a 2-1 away win at FC Köln, a narrow 3-2 home loss to Bayern, and a 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig underline both their attacking threat and occasional defensive looseness. Across these three matches they’ve scored six and conceded six, but the broader five-game numbers show an impressive 3.0 goals scored on average and 1.4 conceded, with expected goals for at 2.444 and against at 1.506. That combination – high output backed by strong xG – points to a side consistently creating better chances than it allows, even if lapses at the back still appear. Augsburg, in 9th, are in respectable shape but with more volatility. They beat Köln 2-0 at home and edged Wolfsburg 3-2 away, either side of a tight 2-1 defeat at Leipzig. That’s six goals scored and four conceded in three games, yet their five-game profile is less flattering: 1.2 goals scored, 2.2 conceded on average, with xG for at 1.884 and xG against a worrying 2.652. In other words, they’ve been allowing plenty of chances and relying on efficiency at the other end. Against a Dortmund attack with Champions League ambitions on the line, that imbalance could be brutally exposed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% is backed up by recent scorelines. Two of Dortmund’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Bayern, 2-2 vs Leipzig), and the third finished 2-1 – all three clearing that line. For Augsburg, two of their last three also went over 2.5 (3-2 vs Wolfsburg, 2-1 vs Leipzig), with only the 2-0 win over Köln falling under. Dortmund’s average of 3.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, combined with Augsburg’s 1.2 for and 2.2 against, plus both sides’ positive xG in attack and high xG against for Augsburg, all support an open contest rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.22, which fits these sides’ recent patterns. Dortmund’s last three have produced 9, 7 and 8 total corners respectively, while Augsburg’s have been more explosive on that front, with 14, 15 and 14 total corners. Augsburg in particular have been racking up corners (10 at Wolfsburg, 8 at Leipzig) through direct, front-foot play. With Dortmund likely to dominate territory and Augsburg ready to break and fire in crosses, the predicted corners figure just above 10 feels consistent with the way both teams have been attacking.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction of 25.68 total attempts reflects two teams that don’t shy away from pulling the trigger. Dortmund’s recent games saw a combined 27 shots vs Köln, 24 vs Bayern and 24 vs Leipzig, while Augsburg’s produced 27 vs Leipzig, 24 vs Köln and 25 vs Wolfsburg. Those tallies marry well with the expected shots number and the healthy xG profiles for both attacks, suggesting a match with frequent efforts on goal rather than a cagey affair.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s edge comes from a more potent, consistent attack, stronger underlying numbers at both ends, and the added urgency of a title and Champions League push from 2nd place. Augsburg have shown they can hurt opponents, but their tendency to concede chances is a poor match-up against this level of firepower. The key factor to watch will be whether Augsburg’s defence can withstand Dortmund’s early pressure; if they crumble quickly, the scoreboard and shot count could both climb fast.

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