Bundesliga 2026-2027: Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Dortmund

Home Team
70%
VS

Eintracht Frankfurt

Away Team
13%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 69%
Under 2.5: 31%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 28.8
Expected Spread: +1.1

Why the Model Leans Dortmund

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Dortmund
Chance creation (xG data) +5.9 Dortmund
Defense +5.4 Dortmund
Results & dominance +3.6 Dortmund
Attack +3.4 Dortmund

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 85% for Dortmund. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Dortmund attack & chance creation +8.6 Over
Eintracht Frankfurt defense +6.6 Over
Eintracht Frankfurt attack & chance creation +3.4 Over
Dortmund defense +3.3 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 69% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 6 4 2 0 22 5 17 14
2 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 11 4 7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 15 6 9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 16 9 7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 14 10 4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 0 3 16 11 5 9
8 Werder Bremen 6 2 3 1 12 12 0 9
9 Stuttgart 7 3 0 4 9 10 -1 9
10 Hamburg 6 3 0 3 6 15 -9 9
11 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 16 12 4 8
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10 16 -6 8
13 FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 11 14 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 4 7 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 5 9 -4 5
17 Union Berlin 6 1 2 3 5 17 -12 5
18 M'gladbach 7 0 0 7 8 21 -13 0

Recent Trends

Dortmund D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Paderborn (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)

Eintracht Frankfurt W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

xG (avg) 2.36
xGA (avg) 0.76
Clean Sheets 3

Eintracht Frankfurt

xG (avg) 2.08
xGA (avg) 3.09
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are favoured to win at 70%, with a draw at 18% and an Ein Frankfurt win at 13%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 69%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is a major part of the forecast, backed by Dortmund’s solid home numbers: they have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded at home. Their chance creation and defending also compare favourably with Ein Frankfurt’s, who have conceded an average of 3.3 goals away from home. Dortmund have drawn their last two, including a 0-0 away to Union Berlin after a 2-2 home draw with Werder Bremen. Ein Frankfurt’s latest result was a 1-0 win over FC Koln, a response to their 0-6 away loss to RB Leipzig. That heavy defeat underlines the defensive risk Dortmund may look to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Eintracht Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 69%. Dortmund’s attack and chance creation support that lean, while Ein Frankfurt’s away defending has been vulnerable, conceding 3.3 goals per game on average.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Eintracht Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.3 corners in total. Both teams had 10 corners in their most recent matches, Dortmund’s 5-5 draw with Union Berlin and Ein Frankfurt’s 7-3 win over FC Koln.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Eintracht Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Dortmund’s latest match had 21 shots in total, while Ein Frankfurt’s latest match had 24, so the projection points to a higher combined count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Dortmund wins by X goals. Negative = Eintracht Frankfurt wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Dortmund are favoured by about 1.1 goals. Their stronger home record and Ein Frankfurt’s defensive problems away from home support that margin.

Final Prediction

Ein Frankfurt’s away attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game, is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast. If that threat carries over while their defence holds firmer than it did against RB Leipzig, Dortmund’s advantage could narrow.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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