Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Mainz Prediction - 30 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Freiburg

Home Team
43%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
30%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 11 10 1 0 41 8 33 31
2 RB Leipzig 11 8 1 2 22 13 9 25
3 Leverkusen 11 7 2 2 27 15 12 23
4 Dortmund 11 6 4 1 19 10 9 22
5 Stuttgart 11 7 1 3 20 15 5 22
6 Ein Frankfurt 11 6 2 3 27 22 5 20
7 Hoffenheim 11 6 2 3 22 17 5 20
8 Union Berlin 11 4 3 4 14 17 -3 15
9 Werder Bremen 11 4 3 4 15 20 -5 15
10 FC Koln 11 4 2 5 20 19 1 14
11 Freiburg 11 3 4 4 15 20 -5 13
12 M'gladbach 11 3 3 5 16 19 -3 12
13 Augsburg 11 3 1 7 15 24 -9 10
14 Hamburg 11 2 3 6 9 17 -8 9
15 Wolfsburg 11 2 2 7 13 21 -8 8
16 St Pauli 11 2 1 8 9 21 -12 7
17 Mainz 11 1 3 7 11 19 -8 6
18 Heidenheim 11 1 2 8 8 26 -18 5

Recent Trends

Freiburg L W D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 2)

Mainz D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 1

Mainz

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Mainz is predicted to lean in favor of the home side, with a 43.0% probability of Freiburg claiming victory. Despite the higher chance of a home win, there's a 27.0% chance of the match ending in a draw and a 30.0% possibility for Mainz to secure an away win. With both teams positioned in the lower half of the table—Freiburg at 11th and Mainz struggling in 17th—the game promises to be a critical encounter for both sides looking to improve their standings.

Match Analysis

Freiburg's recent performances have been a mixed bag, with a notable 2-1 victory over St Pauli at home followed by a hard-fought goalless draw against Union Berlin away. However, a comprehensive 6-2 defeat to Bayern Munich highlighted their defensive vulnerabilities. Freiburg's average goals scored in the last five matches stand at 1.8, while they concede an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating a balanced but leaky defense. Mainz, on the other hand, has struggled to find form, managing only two draws and a loss in their last three outings. Their recent match against Hoffenheim ended in a 1-1 draw, showcasing their persistent issues in both attack and defense. Mainz has scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.8 per game over their last five matches. Their inability to keep a clean sheet in these fixtures further underscores their defensive challenges.

Final Prediction

Freiburg holds a slight edge in this matchup, largely due to their marginally better form and home advantage. Their capacity to score more frequently than Mainz, coupled with their slightly tighter defensive record, could be decisive. A key factor to watch will be Freiburg's ability to convert their attacking chances, as their expected goals metric suggests they have the potential to breach Mainz’s defense.

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