Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

RB Leipzig

Home Team
84%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 69%
Under 2.5: 31%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 28.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 5)

Wolfsburg L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.11
# Clean Sheets: 1

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.32
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig are strong favourites here, with an 84.0% probability of a home win against a Wolfsburg side given just a 7.0% chance, and a 9.0% likelihood of a draw. Leipzig sit 4th in the Bundesliga on 39 points, pushing for the Champions League places, while Wolfsburg are 15th on 19 points and hovering just above the relegation battle. The model also points towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 69.0% and a goal expected in the match at 65.0%.

Match Analysis

Leipzig come into this one with mixed but generally positive recent form: a 2-1 away win at FC Koln, a narrow 1-2 home loss to Mainz, and a 1-1 draw at St Pauli. Those results show they are creating enough to stay competitive in every match, even if defensive lapses remain. Their last five games back this up: they average 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with a strong 2.668 expected goals (xG) per match, but also allowing 2.11 xG – high-event football at both ends. Wolfsburg, by contrast, are on a worrying run with three straight defeats: 1-2 at home to Dortmund, 0-1 away at FC Koln, and a 1-3 loss at Mainz. The trend is clear: they are conceding too much and struggling to keep control of games. Over their last five matches, they average 1.2 goals scored and a hefty 2.8 conceded, with 1.572 xG for and 2.322 xG against, plus zero clean sheets. Up against Leipzig’s more potent attack, that defensive vulnerability is a major concern.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 69.0% is strongly supported by recent scorelines. Two of Leipzig’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Koln, 1-2 vs Mainz), with only the 1-1 at St Pauli going under. Wolfsburg also had two of their last three go over 2.5 (1-2 vs Dortmund, 1-3 vs Mainz), with just the 0-1 at Koln finishing under 2.5. With Leipzig averaging 2.2 scored and 2.0 conceded and Wolfsburg allowing 2.8 goals per game recently, plus both sides’ xG numbers (2.668 for Leipzig, 1.572 for Wolfsburg), this all points towards another match with at least three goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction for this game is 10.12 total corners, suggesting a busy contest on the flanks. Leipzig’s last three matches produced 7, 9 and 7 total corners respectively, while Wolfsburg’s games saw 12, 7 and 16 corners, including that extreme 1-15 corner count away to Mainz. Given Leipzig’s attacking profile and Wolfsburg often defending deep and facing waves of pressure, the predicted corners figure around ten fits a game where the home side should pin the visitors back for long spells.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 28.14, reflecting a match where both sides create but Leipzig dominate. Leipzig’s last three games saw them involved in matches with 29, 26 and 19 total shots, while Wolfsburg’s produced 33, 29 and 27 shots. That volume aligns well with their xG profiles: Leipzig’s 2.668 xG per game and Wolfsburg’s 1.572 xG suggest a steady stream of attempts, and the shots prediction of around 28 looks realistic for this clash.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s stronger league position, far better attacking metrics, and Wolfsburg’s poor defensive record give the hosts a clear edge. If Leipzig sustain their recent xG levels and intensity, their pressure should eventually tell against a Wolfsburg side conceding too many chances. A key factor to watch will be how quickly Leipzig can turn early dominance into goals; an early breakthrough could turn this into a very long evening for the visitors.

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