Bundesliga 2025-2026: Union Berlin vs Mainz Prediction

Union Berlin

Home Team
59%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 15 13 2 0 55 11 44 41
2 Dortmund 15 9 5 1 26 12 14 32
3 Leverkusen 15 9 2 4 33 20 13 29
4 RB Leipzig 15 9 2 4 30 19 11 29
5 Hoffenheim 15 8 3 4 29 20 9 27
6 Stuttgart 15 8 2 5 25 22 3 26
7 Ein Frankfurt 15 7 4 4 30 30 0 25
8 Union Berlin 15 6 3 6 20 23 -3 21
9 Freiburg 15 5 5 5 25 26 -1 20
10 Werder Bremen 15 4 5 6 18 28 -10 17
11 FC Koln 15 4 4 7 22 24 -2 16
12 M'gladbach 15 4 4 7 18 24 -6 16
13 Hamburg 15 4 4 7 16 25 -9 16
14 Wolfsburg 15 4 3 8 23 28 -5 15
15 Augsburg 15 4 2 9 17 28 -11 14
16 St Pauli 15 3 3 9 13 26 -13 12
17 Heidenheim 15 3 2 10 13 34 -21 11
18 Mainz 15 1 5 9 13 26 -13 8

Recent Trends

Union Berlin ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 0)

Mainz ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.83
# Clean Sheets: 2

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.79
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz is predicted to favor the home side, Union Berlin, with a 59.0% probability of winning. The match is expected to feature under 2.5 goals, aligning with the 45.0% probability of a low-scoring affair. Union Berlin currently sits in 8th position, whereas Mainz finds itself at the bottom of the table, in 18th place.

Match Analysis

Union Berlin's recent form suggests a mixed bag of results, with a notable victory against RB Leipzig at home (3-1) and a narrow win over FC Koln away (1-0). However, they suffered a setback against Wolfsburg (1-3) in their last outing. Union Berlin has shown resilience, especially at home, and has managed to keep two clean sheets in their last five games. On average, they score 1.8 goals per match and concede 1.2, with their expected goals scored slightly lower at 1.266, indicating a touch of overperformance in recent matches. In stark contrast, Mainz has struggled throughout the season, reflected in their last three games where they secured a commendable draw against Bayern Munich (2-2) but failed to score in their other two matches. Mainz's inability to find the back of the net consistently is highlighted by their average of 0.6 goals scored per match, coupled with a concerning 2.6 goals conceded. Their defensive frailties are further emphasized by the expected goals against figure of 2.79, suggesting ongoing defensive issues.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin's edge in this encounter stems from their stronger league position and recent performances, particularly at home. With Mainz struggling to score and defend effectively, Union Berlin's ability to capitalize on such weaknesses could prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be Union Berlin's defensive organization, especially in maintaining their clean sheet record against a Mainz side desperate for points.