Bundesliga 2026-2027: FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

FC Köln

Home Team
47%
VS

Schalke 04

Away Team
26%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 28.7
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans FC Köln

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 FC Köln
Chance creation (xG data) +4.4 FC Köln
Attack +1.4 Schalke 04
Defense +1.4 Schalke 04
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.4 Schalke 04

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for FC Köln. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

FC Köln attack & chance creation +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
FC Köln defense +2.1 Over
Form & results +1.6 Over
Schalke 04 defense +1.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 6 4 2 0 22 5 17 14
2 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 11 4 7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 15 6 9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 16 9 7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 14 10 4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 0 3 16 11 5 9
8 Werder Bremen 6 2 3 1 12 12 0 9
9 Stuttgart 7 3 0 4 9 10 -1 9
10 Hamburg 6 3 0 3 6 15 -9 9
11 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 16 12 4 8
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10 16 -6 8
13 FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 11 14 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 4 7 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 5 9 -4 5
17 Union Berlin 6 1 2 3 5 17 -12 5
18 M'gladbach 7 0 0 7 8 21 -13 0

Recent Trends

FC Köln L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 4)

Schalke 04 L L D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Elversberg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

FC Köln

xG (avg) 1.82
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 0

Schalke 04

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 3.03
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

FC Koln are the likeliest winners at 47%, with Schalke 04 and a draw both at 26%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 62% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and the gap in chance creation are the main reasons to favour FC Koln. They have averaged 1.8 expected goals at home, while Schalke 04 have conceded 3.0 expected goals per away match. That points to a difficult defensive test for the visitors. Koln have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches, however, which gives Schalke a possible route into the game. Schalke 04 arrive after successive defeats, 1-2 away to Freiburg and then 0-1 at home to Mainz, following a 0-0 draw with Elversberg. FC Koln’s latest result was a 0-1 defeat away to Ein Frankfurt, after a 2-1 home win over M'gladbach. The hosts have shown they can score at home, but their recent results offer no guarantee of control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

FC Köln
Goals in last 5 matches
Schalke 04
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 62%, with FC Koln’s attack and chance creation the strongest scoring signal. Both defences add to that case, particularly Schalke 04’s away record of conceding 2.0 goals per game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

FC Köln
Corners in last 5 matches
Schalke 04
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.8 corners. Recent match totals were 10 in Ein Frankfurt-FC Koln and five in Schalke 04-Mainz, so the estimate is closer to Koln’s latest total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

FC Köln
Shots in last 5 matches
Schalke 04
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The estimate is 29 shots in total. FC Koln’s match against M'gladbach produced 35 shots, supporting the prospect of a busy game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = FC Köln wins by X goals. Negative = Schalke 04 wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for FC Köln vs Schalke 04 with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for FC Köln vs Schalke 04
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.3 goals in FC Koln’s favour, a narrow home advantage consistent with the win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Schalke 04 could upset the forecast if they make their away chances count. Koln’s run without a clean sheet leaves room for the visitors to threaten.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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