Schalke 04

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1478 · #17 Bundesliga In line Updated Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #17 of 18 37.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 1.3%
Europa League 2.7%
Relegation playoff 11.8%
Relegation 30.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Schalke 04?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Schalke 04's results were 3.8% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketSchalke 04League avg
Match result (1X2) 48.3% 47.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 31.0% 53.6%
Both teams to score 48.3% 61.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #17 1478 1478 1478
2025-26 2. Bundesliga #1 1518 1674 1643
2024-25 2. Bundesliga #17 1536 1536 1415
2023-24 2. Bundesliga #8 1600 1609 1523
2022-23 Bundesliga #15 1480 1481 1446
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #1 1469 1653 1653
2020-21 Bundesliga #18 1476 1476 1294
2019-20 Bundesliga #17 1502 1596 1358
2018-19 Bundesliga #13 1482 1498 1430
2017-18 Bundesliga #3 1520 1626 1622
2016-17 Bundesliga #9 1482 1529 1487
2015-16 Bundesliga #5 1534 1592 1538
2014-15 Bundesliga #11 1482 1582 1470

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Braunschweig W Schalke 04 60.0% · draw 22.6% W ✓
May 09, 2026 at Nurnberg W Schalke 04 34.6% · draw 31.3% L ✗
May 02, 2026 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf W Schalke 04 53.9% · draw 25.4% W ✓
Apr 26, 2026 at Paderborn L Schalke 04 30.8% · draw 31.1% W ✗
Apr 19, 2026 vs Preußen Münster W Schalke 04 54.2% · draw 25.3% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Elversberg L Schalke 04 29.4% · draw 31.5% W ✗
Apr 05, 2026 vs Karlsruhe W Schalke 04 65.7% · draw 20.7% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Darmstadt L Schalke 04 32.1% · draw 31.9% D ✗
Mar 15, 2026 vs Hannover W Schalke 04 41.5% · draw 30.8% D ✗
Mar 06, 2026 vs Bielefeld W Schalke 04 44.0% · draw 30.2% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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