La Liga 2026-2027: Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Celta Vigo

Home Team
53%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
23%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.0
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Celta Vigo

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Celta Vigo
Defense +6.3 Celta Vigo
Results & dominance +0.9 Celta Vigo
Attack +0.8 Celta Vigo

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for Celta Vigo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Celta Vigo attack & chance creation +4.4 Under
Celta Vigo defense +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Alaves attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
Form & results +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 8 0 0 34 7 27 24
2 Ath Madrid 8 6 1 1 18 8 10 19
3 Betis 8 6 1 1 14 9 5 19
4 Real Madrid 8 6 0 2 19 8 11 18
5 Sevilla 8 4 2 2 13 12 1 14
6 Sociedad 8 4 1 3 12 15 -3 13
7 Alaves 8 3 2 3 12 8 4 11
8 La Coruna 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
9 Celta 8 1 5 2 8 6 2 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 13 13 0 8
12 Espanol 8 2 2 4 11 11 0 8
13 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
14 Getafe 8 2 2 4 4 10 -6 8
15 Santander 8 2 2 4 13 23 -10 8
16 Osasuna 8 2 2 4 8 18 -10 8
17 Levante 7 1 3 3 11 15 -4 6
18 Elche 8 1 3 4 11 17 -6 6
19 Valencia 8 1 2 5 6 15 -9 5
20 Malaga 8 0 4 4 4 13 -9 4

Recent Trends

Celta Vigo D W D D D

  • Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Santander (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Malaga (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 0)

Alaves L D L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Santander (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta Vigo

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 3

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 1.14
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are favoured to win, with a 53% chance, against 23% for Alaves and 25% for a draw. The goals forecast leans under 2.5, at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Celta also backed by a stronger defensive profile. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, while Alaves have scored only once in their last three. Celta’s recent home scoring average of 1.8 goals is higher than their 1.3 expected goals, suggesting they have been finishing better than their chances alone would indicate. Celta’s 5-0 win over Santander was followed by a 0-0 draw away to Elche. Alaves drew 0-0 at Ath Bilbao before losing 1-2 at home to Ath Madrid, and their recent results point to a side finding goals hard to come by.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta Vigo
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%. Celta’s recent attack and chance creation are the strongest reason for that call, with their home scoring average only 1.8 and Alaves scoring 0.7 per away game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta Vigo
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.1 corners. Alaves’ latest match produced ten corners, all for Ath Madrid, while Celta’s latest had seven in total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta Vigo
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 24 shots. Alaves’ last two matches featured 30 and 26 shots combined, suggesting their games can generate plenty of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Celta Vigo wins by X goals. Negative = Alaves wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Celta Vigo vs Alaves with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Celta Vigo vs Alaves
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Celta’s favour, consistent with their home advantage and stronger defensive record.

Final Prediction

Alaves’ away chance creation could make this closer than their scoring record suggests. They have averaged 1.5 expected goals away from home despite scoring just 0.7, so converting those chances would put pressure on Celta.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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