Santander
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #17 of 20 41.0 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 22 in Segunda División 82 pts · 25W-7D-10L · GD +29
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Santander?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Santander's results were 5.2% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Santander | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 54.0% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 73.0% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #15 | 1498 | 1500 | 1457 |
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #2 | 1520 | 1636 | 1631 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #8 | 1516 | 1659 | 1540 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #9 | 1558 | 1592 | 1519 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #10 | 1372 | 1540 | 1540 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #22 | 1479 | 1481 | 1368 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Valencia | W Santander 43.8% · draw 27.4% | D ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | at Celta Vigo | L Santander 16.0% · draw 20.2% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/santander">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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