Santander
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #13 of 20 46.8 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 3 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 22 in Segunda División 82 pts · 25W-7D-10L · GD +29
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Santander?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Santander's results were 5.2% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Santander | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 54.0% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 73.0% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #10 | 1498 | 1498 | 1495 |
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #2 | 1520 | 1636 | 1631 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #8 | 1516 | 1659 | 1540 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #9 | 1558 | 1592 | 1519 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #10 | 1372 | 1540 | 1540 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #22 | 1479 | 1481 | 1368 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | vs Cadiz | W Santander 77.7% · draw 14.2% | W ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Malaga | W Santander 36.2% · draw 30.9% | D ✗ |
| May 16, 2026 | vs Valladolid | W Santander 60.2% · draw 21.9% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Leganes | W Santander 42.8% · draw 28.7% | W ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Huesca | W Santander 68.4% · draw 18.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Ceuta | W Santander 39.0% · draw 29.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Sociedad B | W Santander 44.3% · draw 26.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Almeria | L Santander 32.7% · draw 29.6% | W ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Andorra | L Santander 31.9% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs Sp Gijon | W Santander 49.5% · draw 25.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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