La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Betis Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mallorca

Home Team
16%
VS

Betis

Away Team
69%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Mallorca L W L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 2)

Betis W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 0

Betis

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.42
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are clear favourites here, with a 69.0% probability of taking all three points away to Mallorca, who are given just a 16.0% chance, with the draw at 15.0%. The model leans towards a tight game and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite expecting both sides to get on the scoresheet. In the table, Betis sit in the Champions League race in 5th on 38 points, while Mallorca are 16th on 24 points and still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Mallorca’s last three outings have been a rollercoaster: heavy 0-3 away defeats to Barcelona and Atlético Madrid, split by an impressive 4-1 home win over Sevilla. That pattern fits a side that struggles badly against the elite away from home but can be dangerous at Son Moix. The advanced numbers back up that threat: across their last five matches they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored with 2.264 expected goals per game, but also 1.6 goals conceded and no clean sheets, highlighting a wide‑open profile. Betis arrive with more stable, if less explosive, scorelines: a gritty 1-0 away win at Atlético, a 2-1 home win over Valencia, and a 1-2 defeat at Alavés. They’re finding results without blowing teams away, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in their last five. However, their 1.42 xG for and 1.7 xG against per match suggest they are creating more than they’re finishing, while also allowing chances. Two clean sheets in those five games hint at a side capable of shutting things down when needed, which could be crucial against a Mallorca team that has been overperforming its attacking numbers recently.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 52.0% implied likelihood (given a 48.0% chance of over 2.5 goals), even though both attacks should have opportunities. In Mallorca’s last three games, all three have actually gone over 2.5 goals (3-0, 4-1, 0-3 total goals), while all three of Betis’ matches have also finished over 2.5 except the 1-0 at Atlético (two out of three over). Still, Mallorca’s 2.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game versus Betis’ much lower 0.8 scored, plus both sides’ xG figures, suggest chances without necessarily turning into a goalfest, which underpins the over 2.5 prediction being less favoured than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Betis
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.96 corners, making a roughly 10-corner corners prediction for this match. Mallorca’s recent corner counts were 3, 4 and 3, while their opponents took 12, 8 and 10, showing they’re often pushed back and concede plenty of set-piece situations. Betis have earned 3, 3 and 4 corners in their last three, while conceding 7, 5 and 6, consistent with a balanced but proactive side; if Betis control territory as expected, the predicted corners total around 10 looks well supported.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Betis
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 26.44 total efforts, giving an expected shots figure in the mid‑20s. Mallorca’s last three matches featured 9, 11 and 6 shots for, with 24, 15 and 17 against, pointing to games where they allow a lot of attempts. Betis, meanwhile, have posted 8, 14 and 18 shots while facing 10, 15 and 17, which fits with their 1.42 xG per game: steady creation more than explosive output. Combining both profiles, a shots prediction around 26 overall feels realistic.

Final Prediction

Betis’ superior league position, recent wins over Atlético and Valencia, and their stronger underlying xG balance give them the edge despite Mallorca’s lively home form. The key battleground will be how often Betis can turn their territorial play into clean chances against a Mallorca defence that has not kept a clean sheet in its last five games.

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