La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Valencia Prediction
Real Madrid
Home Team
96%
VS
Valencia
Away Team
1%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5:
57%
Under 2.5:
43%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Ath Madrid | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Espanol | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Betis | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Vallecano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Elche | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Betis | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Getafe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | Sociedad | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Valencia | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Oviedo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 | Girona | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Real Madrid
- Last Match: vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Villarreal (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 5)
- 5th Last Match: vs Levante (Goals: 4 - 1)
Valencia
- Last Match: vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Alaves (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Real Madrid
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.76
# Clean Sheets:
1
Valencia
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.99
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
In the upcoming clash between Real Madrid and Valencia, Real Madrid is the strong favorite to secure a victory with a commanding 96.0% probability of winning. The predicted outcome leans heavily towards a home win for Real Madrid, while the chances of a draw stand at 2.0%, and Valencia's chances of an upset are a mere 1.0%. The expectation is for a high-scoring game, with a 57.0% probability of over 2.5 goals. Real Madrid currently tops La Liga, while Valencia is languishing in the relegation zone at 18th position.
Match Analysis
Real Madrid comes into this fixture in fine form, having won their last three games, including a notable victory against rivals Barcelona. They have scored an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five matches while maintaining a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals on average. Their recent performances reflect their dominance, with a strong expected goals metric of 2.612, indicating their attacking prowess.
In stark contrast, Valencia has struggled, failing to win any of their last three matches, with losses to Villarreal and Girona and a goalless draw against Alaves. They have managed an average of only 0.6 goals per game in their last five outings and have conceded an average of 2.2 goals. Valencia's expected goals scored, at 0.854, further emphasize their difficulties in front of goal, while their defensive vulnerabilities are highlighted by an expected goals conceded figure of nearly 2.0.
Final Prediction
Real Madrid's recent form, coupled with their superior attacking and defensive metrics, gives them a significant edge heading into this match. Their ability to score and control games has been evident, and Valencia's recent struggles only enhance Madrid's chances of continuing their winning streak. A key factor to watch will be Real Madrid's attacking efficiency, as they look to exploit Valencia's defensive frailties and secure all three points.