La Liga 2026-2027: Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction - 26 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sevilla

Home Team
40%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
32%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Sevilla

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Sevilla
Attack +6.8 Osasuna
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.4 Sevilla
Results & dominance +2.3 Osasuna

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Sevilla. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Osasuna attack & chance creation +4.3 Under
Osasuna defense +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Sevilla attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
Sevilla defense +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 9 9 0 0 39 9 30 27
2 Ath Madrid 9 7 1 1 19 8 11 22
3 Real Madrid 9 7 0 2 23 9 14 21
4 Betis 9 6 1 2 16 14 2 19
5 Sociedad 9 5 1 3 17 17 0 16
6 Sevilla 9 4 2 3 14 16 -2 14
7 Alaves 9 3 2 4 13 10 3 11
8 Celta 9 2 5 2 10 7 3 11
9 La Coruna 9 2 5 2 13 12 1 11
10 Osasuna 9 3 2 4 10 18 -8 11
11 Levante 9 2 4 3 15 17 -2 10
12 Villarreal 9 2 3 4 13 13 0 9
13 Betis 8 2 3 3 8 9 -1 9
14 Vallecano 8 2 3 3 12 17 -5 9
15 Getafe 9 2 3 4 5 11 -6 9
16 Espanol 9 2 2 5 11 12 -1 8
17 Santander 9 2 2 5 13 25 -12 8
18 Elche 9 1 4 4 11 17 -6 7
19 Valencia 9 1 3 5 6 15 -9 6
20 Malaga 9 0 4 5 6 18 -12 4

Recent Trends

Sevilla L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs La Coruna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)

Osasuna W L D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Santander (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 1.76
Clean Sheets 2

Osasuna

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 2.38
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sevilla are the likeliest winners at 40%, with Osasuna at 32% and a draw at 28%. Under 2.5 goals is the lean, at 54%.

Match Analysis

Sevilla’s home advantage is the clearest separator, but Osasuna’s attack is the main counterweight. Sevilla have won four of nine league games, compared with Osasuna’s three, though their recent home defending has been vulnerable. Osasuna have also struggled to keep goals out away from home, giving Sevilla a route to exploit. Sevilla lost 1-4 to Real Madrid after drawing 3-3 with Levante, conceding seven across those two matches. Osasuna followed a 2-5 defeat at Betis with a 2-0 win over Santander. Those results show the visitors can score, but also underline the defensive inconsistency that makes this a close call.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is favored at 54%, with Osasuna’s chance creation the strongest factor pulling the total down. Their defensive record and the league’s scoring environment point the other way, so the under lean is narrow rather than emphatic.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 8.7 corners. Recent totals are mixed: Osasuna won seven corners against Santander, while Sevilla had two against Real Madrid.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected match total is about 24 shots. Recent fixtures show both sides can contribute to active shot counts: Sevilla’s matches recorded 26, 38 and 31 attempts, while Osasuna’s recorded 29, 31 and 29.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sevilla wins by X goals. Negative = Osasuna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sevilla vs Osasuna with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sevilla vs Osasuna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is 0.3 goals in Sevilla’s favour, a modest home lean that reflects the narrow gap between their win and loss chances.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s ability to turn their attacking threat into goals is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast, especially against a Sevilla side that has conceded seven in its last two matches.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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