La Liga 2026-2027: Real Sociedad vs Levante Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Real Sociedad

Home Team
64%
VS

Levante

Away Team
16%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 27.4
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Real Sociedad

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Real Sociedad
Defense +5.8 Real Sociedad
Attack +3.5 Real Sociedad
Results & dominance +2.8 Real Sociedad
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.2 Real Sociedad

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 80% for Real Sociedad. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Levante defense +4.6 Over
Real Sociedad attack & chance creation +3.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Levante attack & chance creation +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 9 9 0 0 39 9 30 27
2 Ath Madrid 9 7 1 1 19 8 11 22
3 Real Madrid 9 7 0 2 23 9 14 21
4 Betis 9 6 1 2 16 14 2 19
5 Sociedad 9 5 1 3 17 17 0 16
6 Sevilla 9 4 2 3 14 16 -2 14
7 Alaves 9 3 2 4 13 10 3 11
8 Celta 9 2 5 2 10 7 3 11
9 La Coruna 9 2 5 2 13 12 1 11
10 Osasuna 9 3 2 4 10 18 -8 11
11 Levante 9 2 4 3 15 17 -2 10
12 Villarreal 9 2 3 4 13 13 0 9
13 Betis 8 2 3 3 8 9 -1 9
14 Vallecano 8 2 3 3 12 17 -5 9
15 Getafe 9 2 3 4 5 11 -6 9
16 Espanol 9 2 2 5 11 12 -1 8
17 Santander 9 2 2 5 13 25 -12 8
18 Elche 9 1 4 4 11 17 -6 7
19 Valencia 9 1 3 5 6 15 -9 6
20 Malaga 9 0 4 5 6 18 -12 4

Recent Trends

Real Sociedad W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Malaga (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs La Coruna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 2)

Levante W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs La Coruna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Sociedad

xG (avg) 1.47
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 0

Levante

xG (avg) 0.83
xGA (avg) 2.08
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are favored to win, with a 64% probability, compared with 20% for a draw and 16% for a Levante victory. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Sociedad are favored chiefly by playing at home, with the defensive and attacking comparisons also leaning their way. Levante have averaged 0.4 goals away from home, though their 0.8 expected goals suggests their actual return has been lower than their chances warrant. Sociedad’s latest result, a 5-2 win away to Malaga, extended their winning run to three, including a 3-2 home victory over La Coruna. Levante most recently beat Ath Bilbao 3-1 after consecutive draws, but neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 61%, chiefly because Levante’s defending has been vulnerable and Sociedad’s attack and chance creation point the same way. The league scoring environment and Levante’s own ability to create chances also support that lean.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.7 corners. Recent matches have included plenty of set-piece opportunities, with 17 corners in Sociedad’s home match against La Coruna and 12 in Levante’s latest game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 27 shots. That fits the recent volume: Sociedad’s match with Malaga featured 38 shots in total, while Levante’s win over Ath Bilbao had 33.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Real Sociedad wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Real Sociedad vs Levante with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Real Sociedad vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in Sociedad’s favour, consistent with their stronger chance of winning.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s failure to keep a clean sheet in five matches is the clearest vulnerability. If Levante can bring the attacking threat they showed in their 3-3 draw with Sevilla, they could make the home side’s defensive issues count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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