Malaga

Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1649 · #1 Segunda División In line Updated May 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #18 of 20 45.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.3%
Champions League 5.1%
Europa League 5.1%
Relegation 27.2%

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Malaga?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Malaga's results were 3.6% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.

MarketMalagaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.3% 50.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 43.2% 58.0%
Both teams to score 64.9% 56.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Segunda División #1 1498 1649 1649
2024-25 Segunda División #17 1488 1544 1465
2022-23 Segunda División #13 1423 1507 1484
2021-22 Segunda División #20 1472 1548 1419
2020-21 Segunda División #17 1526 1588 1469
2019-20 Segunda División #3 1616 1616 1560
2018-19 Segunda División #3 1523 1619 1619
2017-18 La Liga #19 1471 1471 1299
2016-17 La Liga #9 1498 1525 1511
2015-16 La Liga #6 1498 1543 1509
2014-15 La Liga #16 1518 1578 1412

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 31, 2026 at Zaragoza W Malaga 37.3% · draw 29.6% W ✓
May 24, 2026 vs Santander L Malaga 32.9% · draw 30.9% D ✗
May 16, 2026 at Ceuta W Malaga 37.3% · draw 31.1% W ✓
May 09, 2026 vs Sp Gijon W Malaga 39.1% · draw 30.9% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Eibar L Malaga 18.8% · draw 25.8% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Castellon L Malaga 31.0% · draw 30.2% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Almeria L Malaga 27.5% · draw 28.0% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Las Palmas W Malaga 35.3% · draw 31.4% W ✓
Apr 04, 2026 at La Coruna L Malaga 26.1% · draw 29.7% D ✗
Apr 01, 2026 at Andorra L Malaga 33.1% · draw 31.4% D ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/malaga">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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