Malaga
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #20 of 20 33.7 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 22 in Segunda División 73 pts · 21W-10D-11L · GD +23
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Malaga?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Malaga's results were 3.6% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Malaga | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.3% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #20 | 1480 | 1480 | 1412 |
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #1 | 1498 | 1649 | 1649 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #17 | 1488 | 1544 | 1465 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #13 | 1423 | 1507 | 1484 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #20 | 1472 | 1548 | 1419 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #17 | 1526 | 1588 | 1469 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #3 | 1616 | 1616 | 1560 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #3 | 1523 | 1619 | 1619 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #19 | 1471 | 1471 | 1299 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #9 | 1498 | 1525 | 1511 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #6 | 1498 | 1543 | 1509 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #16 | 1518 | 1578 | 1412 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/malaga">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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title="La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/malaga">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>