La Coruna
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #13 of 20 46.9 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 22 in Segunda División 77 pts · 22W-11D-9L · GD +21
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is La Coruna?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, La Coruna's results were 3.8% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | La Coruna | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.3% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #8 | 1498 | 1544 | 1494 |
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #5 | 1533 | 1644 | 1609 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #16 | 1493 | 1580 | 1468 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #12 | 1561 | 1585 | 1525 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #5 | 1501 | 1634 | 1556 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #18 | 1466 | 1470 | 1365 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #13 | 1518 | 1519 | 1410 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #17 | 1498 | 1575 | 1417 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #14 | 1482 | 1511 | 1426 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | at Real Sociedad | L La Coruna 26.5% · draw 26.7% | L ✓ |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L La Coruna 31.6% · draw 26.1% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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