La Liga 2026-2027: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valencia

Home Team
25%
VS

Athletic Bilbao

Away Team
52%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Athletic Bilbao

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Valencia
Chance creation (xG data) +12.2 Athletic Bilbao
Attack +6.7 Athletic Bilbao
Defense +5.8 Athletic Bilbao
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.0 Athletic Bilbao

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 67% for Athletic Bilbao. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Valencia defense +3.8 Over
Valencia attack & chance creation +2.5 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Athletic Bilbao defense +1.3 Under
Form & results +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 8 0 0 34 7 27 24
2 Ath Madrid 8 6 1 1 18 8 10 19
3 Betis 8 6 1 1 14 9 5 19
4 Real Madrid 8 6 0 2 19 8 11 18
5 Sevilla 8 4 2 2 13 12 1 14
6 Sociedad 8 4 1 3 12 15 -3 13
7 Alaves 8 3 2 3 12 8 4 11
8 La Coruna 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
9 Celta 8 1 5 2 8 6 2 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 13 13 0 8
12 Espanol 8 2 2 4 11 11 0 8
13 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
14 Getafe 8 2 2 4 4 10 -6 8
15 Santander 8 2 2 4 13 23 -10 8
16 Osasuna 8 2 2 4 8 18 -10 8
17 Levante 7 1 3 3 11 15 -4 6
18 Elche 8 1 3 4 11 17 -6 6
19 Valencia 8 1 2 5 6 15 -9 5
20 Malaga 8 0 4 4 4 13 -9 4

Recent Trends

Valencia D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Santander (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 5)

Athletic Bilbao D D W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 2.15
Clean Sheets 1

Athletic Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.68
xGA (avg) 2.56
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Ath Bilbao are favoured to win, with a 52% chance, against 25% for Valencia and 23% for a draw. The goals outlook leans narrowly over 2.5, at 50%.

Match Analysis

Valencia’s home advantage helps, but their chance creation and defending are concerns: they have averaged only 0.5 goals at home and conceded 2.3. Ath Bilbao’s stronger attack and defensive record make them the more likely winners, despite Valencia’s latest result, a 2-2 draw away to Santander, following a 2-3 home defeat by Sociedad. Ath Bilbao’s recent results include a 0-0 draw with Alaves and a 1-1 draw with Elche, but their away chance creation suggests they may be capable of more. They have averaged 1.7 expected goals away from home against one actual goal, pointing to a gap between the chances they create and their returns. Valencia’s home defensive issues could give the visitors room to improve on that conversion.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Athletic Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a slight lean at 50%. Valencia’s defensive record is the strongest reason to expect goals, while their limited attack and Ath Bilbao’s defensive numbers pull the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Athletic Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Recent matches have featured varied totals, but Valencia’s latest game produced 11 and Ath Bilbao’s latest produced six.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Athletic Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 24 shots. Ath Bilbao had 24 attempts against Alaves, while Valencia’s latest match with Santander featured 30 in total.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valencia wins by X goals. Negative = Athletic Bilbao wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Ath Bilbao’s favour. That fits the visitors’ higher win probability, while Valencia’s home advantage keeps the forecast from pointing to a wider gap.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s ability to defend their home area could change the outlook: Ath Bilbao have created chances away from home but have not matched them with goals. If Valencia can limit those opportunities, the visitors’ advantage may be harder to turn into a win.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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