La Liga 2024-2025: Valencia vs Valladolid Prediction - 8 Mar 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Valencia

Home Team
86%
VS

Valladolid

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 18 3 5 71 25 46 57
2 Ath Madrid 26 16 8 2 43 16 27 56
3 Real Madrid 26 16 6 4 55 25 30 54
4 Ath Bilbao 26 13 9 4 44 23 21 48
5 Villarreal 25 12 8 5 48 35 13 44
6 Betis 26 10 8 8 34 33 1 38
7 Vallecano 26 9 9 8 28 27 1 36
8 Mallorca 26 10 6 10 25 32 -7 36
9 Sociedad 26 10 4 12 23 27 -4 34
10 Celta 26 9 6 11 38 40 -2 33
11 Osasuna 26 7 12 7 32 37 -5 33
12 Sevilla 26 8 9 9 31 36 -5 33
13 Girona 26 9 5 12 34 39 -5 32
14 Getafe 26 7 9 10 21 21 0 30
15 Espanol 25 7 6 12 24 36 -12 27
16 Leganes 26 6 9 11 23 38 -15 27
17 Las Palmas 26 6 6 14 30 44 -14 24
18 Valencia 26 5 9 12 28 44 -16 24
19 Alaves 26 5 8 13 29 40 -11 23
20 Valladolid 26 4 4 18 17 60 -43 16

Recent Trends

Valencia D L D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Valladolid D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Las Palmas (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 7)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.69
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.34
# Clean Sheets: 1

Valladolid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.11
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia is strongly favored to win their upcoming match against Valladolid, with an 86.0% probability of securing victory. The likelihood of a draw is 8.0%, while Valladolid has only a 6.0% chance of winning. The game is expected to stay under 2.5 goals, with a 42.0% probability of that outcome. In the context of the La Liga standings, Valencia stands at 18th position, fighting to avoid relegation, while Valladolid is rooted at the bottom, in 20th place.

Match Analysis

In their recent outings, Valencia has shown mixed performances. They managed a thrilling 3-3 draw against Osasuna away from home, but suffered a 3-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid at home. Their resilience was on display in a closely-fought 1-1 draw with Villarreal away. Valencia's average goals scored and conceded in the last five games both stand at 1.2, indicating a balanced yet underwhelming performance. However, their expected goals metrics suggest they have been slightly underperforming in terms of scoring, with an average expected goals tally of 1.686 against 1.342 expected goals conceded. Valladolid, on the other hand, is struggling significantly, as evidenced by their performances in the last three matches. After a 1-1 draw with Las Palmas, they faced heavy defeats, losing 7-1 to Athletic Bilbao and 4-0 to Sevilla. Their average goals scored in the last five games is a mere 0.6, while they have conceded an alarming 3.6 goals on average. This defensive fragility is underlined by their expected goals conceded metric of 3.106, making it evident that their defense will need to tighten up to stand any chance against Valencia.

Final Prediction

Valencia's edge in this fixture lies in their relative stability and potential to capitalize on scoring opportunities against a defensively vulnerable Valladolid side. The key factor to watch will be Valencia's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, which could determine the final outcome. Given Valladolid's recent defensive frailties, Valencia appears poised to take advantage and secure a crucial home victory.

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