Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Lille Prediction
Auxerre
Home Team
14%
VS
Lille
Away Team
73%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 34 |
| 2 | Paris SG | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 33 |
| 3 | Marseille | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 29 |
| 4 | Lille | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 29 |
| 5 | Lyon | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 24 |
| 6 | Rennes | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Monaco | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 23 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Brest | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Angers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 | Nice | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Lorient | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 17 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 17 | Nantes | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Metz | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 11 |
Recent Trends
Auxerre
- Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
Lille
- Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 4 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Auxerre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.86
# Clean Sheets:
1
Lille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.59
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
Lille is heavily favored to win their upcoming game against Auxerre with a 73.0% probability of victory. In contrast, Auxerre has a mere 14.0% chance of clinching a win. The game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, aligning with the probability of 47.0% for under 2.5 goals. Currently, Lille sits in a strong 4th position in the Ligue 1 standings, while Auxerre is struggling in the 16th spot.
Match Analysis
In their last three matches, Auxerre has shown signs of resilience, managing a win against Metz and securing draws against both Paris FC and Lyon. Their defensive efforts have been commendable, evidenced by their ability to keep a clean sheet against Lyon. Despite scoring an average of only 0.8 goals in their last five games, Auxerre has outperformed their expected goals of 1.33, demonstrating potential in creating scoring opportunities.
Lille, on the other hand, comes into this match in excellent form, having won their last three games. They've secured victories against strong opponents like Marseille and have managed clean sheets in two of these encounters. Lille's offensive prowess is reflected in their recent 4-2 triumph over Paris FC. Despite a modest average of 0.6 goals scored in their last five games, their expected goals of 1.4300000000000002 suggest they have been creating significant scoring chances.
Final Prediction
Lille's recent form and their strong defensive record, with three clean sheets in their last five games, give them a clear advantage over Auxerre. Their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities will be crucial in this matchup. A key factor to watch during the game will be Lille's offensive execution against Auxerre's defense, which has shown potential for resilience but will be tested against Lille's attacking capabilities.