Ligue 1 2026-2027: Brest vs Nice Prediction - 23 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brest

Home Team
45%
VS

Nice

Away Team
28%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Brest

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Brest
Attack +4.8 Nice
Chance creation (xG data) +3.4 Brest
Results & dominance +2.1 Nice
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Brest

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Brest. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Brest attack & chance creation +6.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Brest defense +1.9 Under
Form & results +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lyon 7 4 2 1 13 5 8 14
2 Paris SG 7 4 2 1 14 9 5 14
3 Paris FC 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
4 Lille 7 4 2 1 10 5 5 14
5 Monaco 7 4 2 1 10 6 4 14
6 Rennes 7 4 1 2 15 14 1 13
7 Lorient 7 3 2 2 7 6 1 11
8 Lens 7 3 1 3 14 11 3 10
9 Marseille 7 3 0 4 14 10 4 9
10 Brest 7 2 3 2 13 10 3 9
11 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12 11 1 9
12 Auxerre 7 3 0 4 11 17 -6 9
13 Nice 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
14 Strasbourg 7 2 1 4 12 15 -3 7
15 Angers 7 2 1 4 9 15 -6 7
16 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10 15 -5 6
17 Troyes 7 1 1 5 5 16 -11 4
18 Le Havre 7 0 2 5 5 11 -6 2

Recent Trends

Brest D W L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 1)

Nice L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Mans (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

xG (avg) 2.98
xGA (avg) 1.28
Clean Sheets 0

Nice

xG (avg) 0.79
xGA (avg) 2.14
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brest are the most likely winners at 45%, with a Nice win at 28% and a draw at 27%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 59% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Brest’s ability to create chances underpin the home lean. Brest average 3.0 expected goals at home, while Nice have struggled to produce away from home, averaging 0.8 expected goals and just 0.3 actual goals. That gap suggests Nice will need to be more clinical than their recent away scoring record indicates. Brest’s latest result was a 1-1 draw away to Lille, following a 5-1 home win over Angers. Nice lost 2-1 away to Lyon after home wins over Strasbourg and Lille, both by 2-1. Nice’s recent results are stronger, but their away scoring and defensive numbers leave room for Brest to take control. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five matches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 goals outcome is favoured at 59%. Brest’s chance creation is the clearest reason for that lean, and their home matches have brought an average of 2.3 goals scored, alongside 1.3 conceded.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brest
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.5 corners in total. Recent matches offer mixed counts, but Brest’s home game against Angers had nine corners, while Nice’s latest match against Lyon produced ten.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brest
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 25 shots. Brest’s home win over Angers featured 28 attempts, and Nice’s latest match had 20, giving a sense of the volume both sides can generate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brest wins by X goals. Negative = Nice wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brest vs Nice with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brest vs Nice
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Brest are favoured by about 0.4 goals. Their home advantage and stronger chance creation outweigh Nice’s recent run of wins.

Final Prediction

Nice’s away attack is the main question: if it can improve on its low scoring average, Brest’s lack of clean sheets could make the visitors’ recent form decisive.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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