Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Nantes Prediction

Le Havre

Home Team
72%
VS

Nantes

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 11 7 3 1 21 9 12 24
2 Marseille 11 7 1 3 25 11 14 22
3 Lens 11 7 1 3 17 10 7 22
4 Lille 11 6 2 3 23 13 10 20
5 Monaco 11 6 2 3 23 17 6 20
6 Lyon 11 6 2 3 16 12 4 20
7 Strasbourg 11 6 1 4 22 16 6 19
8 Nice 11 5 2 4 16 16 0 17
9 Toulouse 11 4 3 4 17 15 2 15
10 Rennes 11 3 6 2 18 17 1 15
11 Paris FC 11 4 2 5 18 20 -2 14
12 Le Havre 11 3 4 4 12 16 -4 13
13 Brest 11 2 4 5 14 18 -4 10
14 Angers 11 2 4 5 8 15 -7 10
15 Nantes 11 2 3 6 10 17 -7 9
16 Lorient 11 2 3 6 13 25 -12 9
17 Metz 11 2 2 7 10 26 -16 8
18 Auxerre 11 2 1 8 7 17 -10 7

Recent Trends

Le Havre ⚪ ✅ ✅ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 2)

Nantes ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.71
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.97
# Clean Sheets: 3

Nantes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Le Havre and Nantes is predicted to favor the home side, Le Havre, with a 72.0% probability of victory. The likelihood of Nantes coming out on top stands at a mere 13.0%, while a draw is slightly more probable at 15.0%. With both teams positioned in the lower half of the Ligue 1 standings, Le Havre sits at 12th place, whereas Nantes finds themselves further down in 15th. The game is also anticipated to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, reflecting a 45.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Le Havre's recent performances have shown signs of improvement, securing two wins and a draw in their last three outings, including a commendable goalless draw away to Toulouse. The team has demonstrated defensive solidity, evident in their three clean sheets over the last five matches. Their attack, averaging 1.6 goals per game in recent fixtures, has been efficient, supported by an expected goals metric of 1.714. In contrast, Nantes has struggled to maintain consistency, having suffered two losses in their last three encounters. Despite a spirited 3-5 defeat to Monaco, where they managed to score three goals, their defense appeared vulnerable. Nantes' recent win against Paris FC offered some respite, yet their average of 0.8 goals scored per game and 1.0 goals conceded highlight areas needing improvement. Their expected goals conceded stands at a worrying 1.712, indicating potential defensive frailties.

Final Prediction

Le Havre's recent form and defensive resilience give them an apparent edge against a Nantes side that has been inconsistent and leaky at the back. Fans should keep an eye on Le Havre's ability to maintain their defensive structure, as another clean sheet could be pivotal in securing three points. The key factor to watch will be whether Nantes can tighten their defense to withstand Le Havre's attacks and potentially turn the tide in their favor.