Ligue 1 2026-2027: Le Mans vs Toulouse Prediction - 16 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Le Mans

Home Team
30%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.0
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Toulouse

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Le Mans
Attack +9.4 Toulouse
Chance creation (xG data) +7.2 Toulouse
Results & dominance +5.5 Toulouse
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.0 Le Mans

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Toulouse. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Le Mans defense +6.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Toulouse attack & chance creation +1.9 Under
Toulouse defense +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Le Mans L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 3)

Toulouse D W D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Mans

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.86
Clean Sheets 0

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.86
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse are the most likely winners at 45%, with Le Mans at 30% and a draw at 25%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 60% probability.

Match Analysis

Toulouse’s attack and chance creation are the main reasons for the away lean, though Le Mans’s home advantage narrows the gap. Le Mans’s latest match was a 1-3 defeat away to Paris SG, and they have kept no clean sheets in their last five. Toulouse have avoided defeat in three straight, most recently drawing 2-2 away to Monaco after beating Le Havre 3-2. Both teams have shown attacking returns at their respective venues, but Le Mans’s 2.0 goals per home game have exceeded their 1.3 expected goals, suggesting their finishing has outpaced the chances they create.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Mans
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%. Le Mans’s defensive record is the strongest reason for it: they have conceded 1.7 goals per home game and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Mans
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Recent match totals have varied, from four to 12 for Le Mans and seven to 13 for Toulouse, pointing to a projection near ten rather than an extreme.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Mans
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. The latest matches produced 33 combined shots for Le Mans and 24 for Toulouse, consistent with a forecast in the mid-20s.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Le Mans wins by X goals. Negative = Toulouse wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Le Mans vs Toulouse with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Le Mans vs Toulouse
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about a quarter of a goal in Toulouse’s favour. That slight away lean fits the higher win probability for Toulouse, while allowing for Le Mans’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Toulouse’s away defending could overturn the forecast: they have conceded 2.0 goals per away game and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. If Le Mans turn their home chances into goals, the narrow projected margin could swing.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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