Le Mans
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #14 of 18 39.3 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 18 in Ligue 2 62 pts · 16W-14D-4L · GD +19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Le Mans?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Le Mans's results were 1.0% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Le Mans | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.4% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1498 | 1499 | 1482 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1502 | 1655 | 1655 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #18 | 1475 | 1475 | 1428 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Paris Saint-Germain | L Le Mans 7.6% · draw 12.3% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/le-mans">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/ligue_1"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/le-mans">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>