Le Mans
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #14 of 18 38.9 expected pts · currently 1 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 18 in Ligue 2 62 pts · 16W-14D-4L · GD +19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Le Mans?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Le Mans's results were 1.0% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Le Mans | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.4% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1498 | 1498 | 1480 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1502 | 1655 | 1655 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #18 | 1475 | 1475 | 1428 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at Bastia | W Le Mans 40.1% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Reims | W Le Mans 39.9% · draw 31.3% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Grenoble | W Le Mans 47.0% · draw 27.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Clermont | W Le Mans 62.0% · draw 21.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Boulogne | W Le Mans 41.3% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Pau FC | W Le Mans 50.4% · draw 27.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Amiens | W Le Mans 47.4% · draw 26.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Nancy | W Le Mans 35.9% · draw 30.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Annecy | W Le Mans 39.8% · draw 30.9% | W ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Red Star | L Le Mans 28.0% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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