Ligue 1 2026-2027: Lyon vs Nice Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lyon

Home Team
69%
VS

Nice

Away Team
13%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: +0.9

Why the Model Leans Lyon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lyon
Chance creation (xG data) +7.8 Lyon
Attack +5.8 Lyon
Results & dominance +3.2 Lyon
Defense +2.9 Lyon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 84% for Lyon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lyon attack & chance creation +5.7 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.7 Over
Nice attack & chance creation +0.7 Under
Lyon defense +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Lyon L W D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)

Nice W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Le Mans (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

xG (avg) 2.93
xGA (avg) 1.06
Clean Sheets 2

Nice

xG (avg) 0.59
xGA (avg) 2.36
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are favored to win at 69%, with a draw at 18% and a Nice win at 13%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 61% probability.

Match Analysis

Lyon’s home advantage is supported by the clearest gap in chance creation. They average 2.9 expected goals at home, while Nice concede 2.4 expected goals away from home, a matchup that gives Lyon a strong platform to attack. Lyon have also scored 11 goals and conceded four across six league matches, suggesting their overall balance has been strong. Lyon’s latest match was a 1-2 defeat at Lens, following a 4-0 home win over Rennes. Nice have won their last two, beating Lille 2-1 before most recently defeating Strasbourg 2-1. The Lille result came despite Lille outshooting Nice 21-10, showing Nice can withstand sustained pressure and still take points.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 61%, principally because Lyon’s attack and chance creation point toward a higher-scoring game. The league scoring environment and recent results add to that lean, though Nice’s attacking data and Lyon’s defensive record temper it.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.7 corners in total. Lyon’s recent home match against Rennes produced 11 corners, while the forecast points to a similar level of activity in this game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The estimate is 26 shots in total. Lyon’s recent games against Lens and Rennes featured 28 shots each, while Nice-Lille produced 31, supporting a busy combined volume.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lyon wins by X goals. Negative = Nice wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lyon vs Nice with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lyon vs Nice
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.9 goals in Lyon’s favour. That reflects Lyon’s stronger home chance creation and Nice’s defensive struggles away from home.

Final Prediction

Nice’s ability to turn a tight game their way is the clearest threat to the forecast. Their 2-1 win over Lille came with just 10 shots to Lille’s 21, so Lyon will need to make their chances count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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