Ligue 1 2024-2025: Nantes vs Lens Prediction - 23 Feb 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Nantes

Home Team
11%
VS

Lens

Away Team
79%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 22 17 5 0 59 20 39 56
2 Marseille 22 14 4 4 50 26 24 46
3 Nice 22 11 7 4 44 27 17 40
4 Monaco 22 12 4 6 44 29 15 40
5 Lille 22 10 8 4 36 22 14 38
6 Lyon 22 10 6 6 40 27 13 36
7 Strasbourg 22 9 6 7 37 32 5 33
8 Lens 22 9 6 7 25 22 3 33
9 Brest 22 10 2 10 35 38 -3 32
10 Toulouse 22 7 6 9 23 25 -2 27
11 Angers 22 7 5 10 23 31 -8 26
12 Auxerre 22 6 7 9 31 37 -6 25
13 Rennes 22 7 2 13 29 32 -3 23
14 Reims 22 5 7 10 26 34 -8 22
15 Nantes 22 4 9 9 25 39 -14 21
16 St Etienne 22 5 3 14 20 50 -30 18
17 Le Havre 22 5 2 15 18 43 -25 17
18 Montpellier 22 4 3 15 21 52 -31 15

Recent Trends

Nantes L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 7)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lens L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Montpellier (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nantes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.78
# Clean Sheets: 0

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.48
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Nantes and Lens is predicted to heavily favor the visitors, with a 79.00% probability of Lens securing the victory. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Nantes pulling off a win at home stands significantly lower at 11.00%, leaving a 10.00% chance for a draw. Currently sitting in 8th place in Ligue 1, Lens will look to capitalize on their superior form against a Nantes side struggling in 15th position. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with a 50.00% probability of under 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Nantes enters this match with a mixed bag of recent performances. They endured a heavy 7-1 defeat away to Monaco and a disappointing 2-0 loss at home to Brest, but managed to secure a 2-1 away win against Reims. Their defensive fragility is evident, having conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last five matches and failing to keep any clean sheets. On the other hand, Lens has shown resilience despite recent setbacks. They suffered consecutive 2-0 losses against Strasbourg and Nice, but bounced back with a 2-0 win over Montpellier. Lens has demonstrated a stronger attacking presence, averaging 1.6 goals per game and boasting two clean sheets in their last five outings. Their impressive 2.098 expected goals scored average further highlights their offensive potential.

Final Prediction

Lens holds a clear edge over Nantes, primarily due to their superior recent form and attacking efficiency. Their ability to score and maintain defensive solidity, as reflected in their advanced metrics, positions them well to dominate the encounter. A key factor to watch will be Lens's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, given Nantes's defensive vulnerabilities. This match could further solidify Lens's aspirations in the league standings.

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