Ligue 1 2026-2027: Nice vs Rennes Prediction - 30 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nice

Home Team
37%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
35%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Nice

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Nice
Chance creation (xG data) +4.7 Rennes
Attack +3.9 Rennes
Defense +1.3 Rennes
Results & dominance +1.3 Rennes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Nice. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Rennes attack & chance creation +3.5 Over
Rennes defense +3.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Nice attack & chance creation +2.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 8 5 2 1 16 9 7 17
2 Rennes 8 5 1 2 18 14 4 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
8 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
9 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
10 Nice 8 3 2 3 8 10 -2 11
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 8 0 2 6 8 15 -7 2

Recent Trends

Nice W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)

Rennes W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 0

Rennes

xG (avg) 1.86
xGA (avg) 2.29
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Nice are the narrow pick to win at 37%, just ahead of Rennes at 35%, with a draw at 28%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 58%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Nice a small lift, but Rennes bring the stronger chance creation and attack. Their recent expected goals created away from home average 1.9, compared with 1.5 for Nice at home, so Rennes have the tools to threaten despite playing away. Rennes have won two of their last three, most recently beating Strasbourg 3-0 after a 4-3 loss to Paris FC. Nice's latest result was a 2-1 win away to Brest, but they have kept no clean sheets in their last five. Rennes' away defending is a concern, with 3.0 goals conceded per game in the venue-specific sample.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%. Rennes' attack and chance creation support that outlook, while their defensive record also points to opportunities for Nice.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Nice's latest match had 10 corners, and the one before it also reached 10.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. Each side's last three matches produced at least 20 shots in total, suggesting there should be plenty of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nice wins by X goals. Negative = Rennes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nice vs Rennes with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nice vs Rennes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.1 of a goal in Rennes' favour. That slight away lean sits alongside a near-even win probability split, with Nice's home advantage keeping them marginally ahead in the result forecast.

Final Prediction

Rennes' away defending is the clearest route to a Nice win. If it remains as vulnerable as its recent away record suggests, Nice could make its home advantage count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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