Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Lille Prediction

Paris SG

Home Team
91%
VS

Lille

Away Team
4%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 31 13 18 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 37 15 22 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 36 17 19 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 33 22 11 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 25 17 8 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 29 24 5 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 26 21 5 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 24 22 2 23
9 Monaco 17 7 2 8 27 30 -3 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 18 20 -2 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 23 27 -4 22
12 Lorient 17 4 7 6 20 29 -9 19
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 15 23 -8 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 20 30 -10 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 22 31 -9 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 16 28 -12 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 14 27 -13 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 18 38 -20 12

Recent Trends

Paris SG ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 0)

Lille ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 4 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.56
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.94
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.33
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Paris SG and Lille is heavily tipped in favor of Paris SG, with a 91.0% probability of victory. The match is likely to feature more than 2.5 goals, with a 62.0% chance of this occurring. Currently, Paris SG sits in 2nd place in Ligue 1, closely trailing Lens, while Lille is positioned in 4th, sharing points with Marseille.

Match Analysis

Paris SG enters this encounter on a high note, having won their last three matches. Their recent form has been stellar, marked by decisive victories, including a commanding 5-0 home win against Rennes. They have been prolific in front of goal, averaging 2.8 goals scored in their last five games while maintaining a strong defense, conceding only 0.8 goals on average. This potent combination of attacking prowess and defensive solidity has been reflected in their two clean sheets over this period. Lille, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results recently. Their last three games include a significant 1-0 win over Marseille, showcasing their capability to rise to big occasions. However, they also faced a home defeat to Rennes and narrowly edged out Auxerre with a 4-3 victory. While Lille averages 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game in their last five matches, their defensive vulnerabilities could be a concern against a high-flying Paris SG side.

Final Prediction

Paris SG's recent form and superior goal-scoring ability give them a clear edge in this matchup. Their consistency in both attack and defense, coupled with Lille's occasional defensive frailties, boosts their chances of securing a win. A key factor to watch during the game will be Paris SG's ability to convert chances, which could determine the scale of their victory.